Anybody else following this? Civil unrest across the country, cabinet resigned, President's home is on fire.
https://apnews.com/article/business-kazakhstan-almaty-9da42330ca51c36fe9fd88f9ef35ff4e
Anybody else following this? Civil unrest across the country, cabinet resigned, President's home is on fire.
https://apnews.com/article/business-kazakhstan-almaty-9da42330ca51c36fe9fd88f9ef35ff4e
Wawaweewa, not very nice...
I had not heard. I am quite interested to know if Russia is involved. Kazakhstan is monumentally huge geographically.
tuna55 said:I had not heard. I am quite interested to know if Russia is involved. Kazakhstan is monumentally huge geographically.
Lot of mineral wealth as well, if I remember rightly
Mr_Asa said:tuna55 said:I had not heard. I am quite interested to know if Russia is involved. Kazakhstan is monumentally huge geographically.
Lot of mineral wealth as well, if I remember rightly
Superior potassium? 
My wife lived near Almaty for a year, she isn't shocked all hell broke loose now.
Of note:
Over gas prices!
Liquefied propane actually (what they use the most). Traditionally LPG prices have been controlled and kept artificially low by the government. They loosened these and gas prices doubled.... people mad... burn things. Interesting that all the corruption etc was not the issue, it was gas prices. One wonders why the governors mansion in CA is not on fire. Of course, that was likely just the tipping point.
Hey, this might just be the "out" Putin has been looking for though! Having to divert form the imminent threat of Ukrainian aggression (!?) and "help" Kazakhstan! You know, help get the old gang back together! (CCCP)
Also of note Baikonur Cosmodrom is in Kazakhstan. For those not in the know, that is Russia primary rocket launching facility! It is leased to Russia, but might be a good justification for action by Russia if things go bad(?) I would expect the FSB (new KGB) will be heavily involved in whatever new government is put in place though.
California uses taxes to keep the cost of fuel artificially high.
Kazakhstan and quite a few other countries used government subsidies to keep prices artificially low.
Then, when prices shot up due to market based trading, suddenly many retailers and producers were able to "adjust" their prices lower after protests. Then again after more protests.
The current cost of fuel is actually less than its costs to produce it, so producers are bleeding money. In many cases, utilizing old processing facilities that can barely keep up with demand.
That's where it's at right now. The public wants to pay pennies and has gotten accustomed to paying pennies. Traders and retailers want to manipulate the market attempting to see just how much they can squeeze the consumer, and the producers just want to make enough make to be profitable.
I hope Natalya is ok, after all she is the #4 prostitute in all of Kazakhstan
Deleted my post because I couldn't re-write it without sounding pretentious.
Sufficient to say I'm glad I live in a county with a stable government.
CSTO (Russian NATO) sending troops for the first time ever. Civilians hold the international airport in the old capital of Almaty and multiple government buildings are burning.
Kazakhstan, greatest country in the world
All other countries are run by little girls
Kazakhstan, number one exporter of potassium
All other countries have inferior potassium
Kazakhstan, home of Tinshein swimming pool
It's length thirty meter, width six meter
Filtration system a marvel to behold
It remove 80% of human solid waste
Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, you very nice place
From plains of Tarashek to northern fence of Jewtown
Kazakhstan friend of all except Uzbekistan
They very nosey people, with bone in their brain
Kazakhstan, industry best in world
We invented toffee and trouser belt
Kazakhstan's prostitutes, cleanest in the region
Except of course for Turkmenistan's
Kazakhstan, Kazakhstan, you very nice place
From plains of Tarashek to northern fence of Jewtown
Come grasp mighty p**is of our leader
From junction with the testes to tip of its face!
Weird, since we just watched the movie Terminal a few days ago. The overthrow of the government in a fictional Eastern European country is central to the plot.
Regarding Russia's involvement in this, it is very easy for a nation whose power is significant but brittle to inadvertently transition from a position of perceived strength to one of very real weakness. If Russia becomes involved in a conflict that goes badly, even for a short period of time, its ability to shape the narrative as the presumed dominant regional power will be significantly compromised. If Kazakhstan draws off any sort of significant force from other commitments, Russia will have to confront a very unpleasant set of choices. And it should be noted that China also shares a border with Kazakhstan, and will be paying close attention to events there; Almaty is much, much closer to China than to Russia, and the Chinese will not be thrilled by an active Russian military presence there.
Aaaand now it's gotten worse:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/06/asia/kazakhstan-fuel-protests-thursday-intl/index.html
Putin never turns down an opportunity to brutally quash potential pro-democracy movements in post-Soviet states...
aircooled said:Of note:
Over gas prices!
Gas prices were the match, not the mass of gunpowder that had been building up.
Beer Baron said:aircooled said:Of note:
Over gas prices!
Gas prices were the match, not the mass of gunpowder that had been building up.
Also of note, it's the gas used for heating.
GameboyRMH said:Aaaand now it's gotten worse:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/06/asia/kazakhstan-fuel-protests-thursday-intl/index.html
Putin never turns down an opportunity to brutally quash potential pro-democracy movements in post-Soviet states...
Of course. The puzzle is: Did he plan on this? Will a two front "war" be exactly what Russia wants for a show of force and will to fight, or will it weaken their grip?
Russia likely cannot maintain high op tempo in both Ukraine and Kazakhstan theaters, so much will depend on them 1) limiting the commitment to a discrete area (Almaty) rather than nationwide, and 2) controlling the situation quickly so that they can leave a token force in place long-term. If they cannot fulfill these conditions, they will have to stretch their ground forces, which will be difficult and costly to maintain indefinitely. It may also lead to greater reliance on tactical air near Ukraine, which is limiting, especially if the US decides to start shipping air defense weapons to the Ukrainians.
02Pilot said:Russia likely cannot maintain high op tempo in both Ukraine and Kazakhstan theaters, so much will depend on them 1) limiting the commitment to a discrete area (Almaty) rather than nationwide, and 2) controlling the situation quickly so that they can leave a token force in place long-term. If they cannot fulfill these conditions, they will have to stretch their ground forces, which will be difficult and costly to maintain indefinitely. It may also lead to greater reliance on tactical air near Ukraine, which is limiting, especially if the US decides to start shipping air defense weapons to the Ukrainians.
Yes, but...
If this was done intentionally then Russia could be all set to do both and to do them both quickly, making NATO think there is more depth to Russia's armed forces than there really is.
In order to consider whether Russia sparked this deliberately, we have to question both timing and motives for doing so: why do it, and why do it now? The timing certainly isn't great from Russia's standpoint, as it forces a diversion of resources from the situation in Ukraine. I also don't think that there are any clear motives for doing so. Kazakhstan's government was cooperative with Russia, and Russia's involvement as part of a multinational force is certainly not ideal for imposing regime change (what happens if the Kazakhs resist and the other coalition partners bail when the mission changes?). The only reason I see for Russia moving quickly here is to make sure that the Kazakh government retains control and stability, and secondarily to ensure that China keeps its nose out.
If this were an attempt at maskirovka, something the Russians are quite adept at, I don't think it's a very good one, as it provides no meaningful deception regarding the depth of Russian forces.
02Pilot said:In order to consider whether Russia sparked this deliberately, we have to question both timing and motives for doing so: why do it, and why do it now? The timing certainly isn't great from Russia's standpoint, as it forces a diversion of resources from the situation in Ukraine. I also don't think that there are any clear motives for doing so. Kazakhstan's government was cooperative with Russia, and Russia's involvement as part of a multinational force is certainly not ideal for imposing regime change (what happens if the Kazakhs resist and the other coalition partners bail when the mission changes?). The only reason I see for Russia moving quickly here is to make sure that the Kazakh government retains control and stability, and secondarily to ensure that China keeps its nose out.
If this were an attempt at maskirovka, something the Russians are quite adept at, I don't think it's a very good one, as it provides no meaningful deception regarding the depth of Russian forces.
My primary guess for motivation is that Putin wants Russia to be bigger. Bluster enough to be sure NATO won't do anything in Ukraine, cause an uprising in Kazakhstan, boom, Russia just got 20% bigger and you now can move the border patrol guys right up the NATO's door to say hello. Russia sees that you're not "old man Putin" yet, you can stay in power for a while yet, and you have security to the west.
Another interesting aspect of this: Apparently Kazakhstan is a huge crypto mining center. Crypto mining can make a lot of money (think cartel). Governments like Kazakhstan's like money (think cartel adjacent). Crypto mining takes a LOT of power.
Since this event, the mining of new coins has dropped 15-20%!! (That's world wide BTW) The crypto miner may also be making the situation worse by grabbing up what power is still available. Also the possibility there is some Russian involvement in these operations (they like money also)?
So... if you ever wonder where a lot of the money in Crypto is going...
I also hear the Spetsnaz, the Russian special forces, who are "handling" this, have been told to do so aggressively (not sure they know any other way) which of course = scattered body parts etc. It could get bad. If we ever see any of the results? Maybe not.
TIL Khazak gives trophies down to at least #4 prostitute. EDIT: gives different meaning to "finishing in the trophies"
In reply to tuna55 :
I don't understand the reasoning. Russia is not going to annex Kazakhstan. It had a friendly government and Russian forces were invited in. Puppet state? Maybe, but without the uprising Russia would have been perfectly happy to leave well enough alone.
NATO isn't going to do anything in Ukraine regardless, because it is a defensive alliance. If any direct action (including supplying weapons and intelligence) is going to be taken, it's going to be the US and possibly an ally or two, not NATO, and not the EU. And Russia is not going to annex Ukraine either - the risk calculus makes it far more costly than Russia is prepared to bear. They want a compliant buffer state, the same way they used the Warsaw Pact states as buffers against the West in the 50s and early 60s, not a prolonged occupation facing an insurgency.
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