Learn me: possible relocation

I know there's folks here with experience. 
Here's the short version. 
We rent an apartment. Two young kids. Her parents are here, as are mine. 
We're looking to buy, and have roughly enough  down to keep our monthly expenses comfortable on a starter home in this area. 
It's a wild thought, but there are many places where that money goes much further. I do not have a degree, nor am I able to do heavy labor on any regular basis. I'm an experienced parts guy, but that doesn't earn a lot. It's livable, but hardly marketable. This job is good. We make our bills, save a little, and she doesn't have to work while the kids are little. We do well. 
We have family in SLC, ID, and NJ. None of which are great options because similar high housing markets. I'm 35, and have 32(?) general credits at the local State U I could transfer/work towards. 

This is a heavy question on a heavy topic. I may be nuts. Likely. But if there's a way to avoid a 30 year commitment at the peak of the market with rising interest rates... This community is smart, helpful, and experienced. 
 

I think that's about all I'm willing to post publicly. Thanks. 

I'm from NJ. Don't go there. Highest taxes in the nation. 
 

Young kids... don't underestimate the value of having your parents nearby. 

In reply to SV reX :

It is a huge part of the picture. We're very lucky to have parents here. and the area will always be desirable. In theory this is a very good place to buy in the long term. 

NJ is right out. My brother lives there, but is hardly in a position to help. If anything it's the other way around. 

I had a friend that did this:

He rented a mobile home at a park that you could rent a lot from a private owner or buy a lot. He saved his pennies and bought the mobile he was in and the lot he was on. Then he saved the rent money and replaced the mobile. Then he saved and bought a lot in a "real" neighborhood that you could put a mobile on, but that also had houses. Then he moved his mobile to the new lot and sold his old lot. Then he worked on saving to build a house.

Everything along the way was getting away from paying money to someone else as quickly as possible. Everything he bought he had saved for, so no interest. Each step up, he still outright owned the place he was living.

If I could do it all over again, that is the way I would do it.

That doesn't tell you where to go, but it may help with deciding what, if anything, to buy.

Edit: Sorry, I think I missed a step. He saved up and bought a older, used, mobile, and put it on a rental lot to switch from renting both home and lot to just renting the lot. That was the first lot he bought.

To be clear, we're leaning 95% to just buy. In theory, our costs are known and fixed, and income will generally increase over time. 
 

It's stupid to hesitate hoping that housing repeats 2009. 

Just because I know it's stupid doesn't mean I can get it out of my head. 

In reply to barefootcyborg5000 :

Yep. That's not gonna happen. 
 

My grandparents built their brand new lovely house in 1945 for $6,000. That's absolutely out of my head when I am buying. 

BTW, I bought a house BEFORE 2009. I did fine. 

Where is "Here"?

I moved to Columbus, OH from California. I'd love to move closer to family in Virginia, but it's *really* hard to move away from here.

This would be a great place for someone with parts experience, but not a degree. Columbus is an epicenter for physical logistics. We're 1-day drive to service roughly 1/2 or 1/3 of the population of the U.S.

Major employers around here include: Amazon, DSW, Limited Brands (Victoria's Secret and related). Also JEGS Automotive and Rogue Fitness. If you're willing to do shift work, there are a LOT of opportunities.

You're 1-day drive to NJ. I was thinking 'Indiana' not 'Idaho'.

In reply to Beer Baron :

St. George UT. It's a fast growing place, and some of the highest average property costs of any inland state. 

I think you should stay where you are until the kids are much bigger.

• Parents nearby
• (Uninformed opinion) Housing prices in St Geo. UT are nowhere near peak. That area will appreciate for quite some time as people flee even more expensive places in the West. Now is a good time to buy.
• You wrote that you can afford a starter house there
• You have steady job and you're doing "well"
• If you're from the West, you probably prefer it. You won't like humidity and endless development.
• There aren't many places that have affordable housing and decent wages for what you do and a decent local culture. My guesses at those places are:
  • Western NY, like Buffalo or Rochester. Stick with the suburbs. Rochester gets far, far less lake effect snow than Buffalo.
  • Central Mass, like Boston exurbs or a little further out
  • Smaller cities in eastern WI, like Appleton, Oshkosh, Sheboygan, Green Bay. But winter.
  • I was recently in SW FL. It wasn't bad at all, as FL goes (Florida is not my thing)
  • Smaller cities in SE PA like Lancaster, Reading, Allentown. Housing costs are quite reasonable for the Northeast, and the area is growing slowly but steadily. Lots of logistics businesses there (like Columbus) due to proximity to nearly all of the East Coast

SV reX said:

In reply to barefootcyborg5000 :

Yep. That's not gonna happen. 
 

My grandparents built their brand new lovely house in 1945 for $6,000. That's absolutely out of my head when I am buying. 

$6k in 1945 is the same as $102k now. Still cheap though. 

You are in a good spot. Having family local with young children is something you can't put a price on. Assuming they help watch the kids, it gives you much greater flexibility for work than any day care. Plus daycare is extremely expensive. And you get the added benefit of your kids spending time with family that want to see them Vs. strangers that you have to pay.

Don't worry about living in an apartment with young children. Assuming a nice, safe apartment complex, the kids might actually enjoy it more at a young age Vs. a house. My brother and I lived in an apartment for a good chunk of our childhoods. Lots of kids our ages nearby, a pool to swim in, a park to play at, and more freedom- we could wander the apartment complex at will in relative safety. I wanted to own a home before I had my own children, but I don't think they were any better for it at a young age. Middle school plus, yes, but I think they missed out a bit Vs. my childhood when young. Plus, my parents didn't have to spend their weekends on repairs and landscaping chores, leaving more time for us. 
 

Take the time to get all of your ducks in a row, don't rush into a house. Make sure it's easily affordable. You want to own the house, you don't want it to own you. The house itself isn't the only expense, it's all of the stuff that goes along with it. 

To be fair, your current situation would be enviable to a lot of people. Family close, able to live on one income, enough to buy your own place, and a job that's steady and pays the bills.

There might be places that are cheaper to buy, but lower real estate costs usually go hand in hand with lower wages. Not to mention the value of close family.

I won't say don't do it, but if I was in your shoes, it would take a lot more than cheaper real estate to get me to leave.

Rates will go down at some point. Buy now, refi later. 

Thanks for the input. Keep it coming. 
 

As to the apartment, ours is nice. Rent is high here. Very high. But it's a nice area, close to everything, and great for kids with pools and playgrounds and basketball court on the property. I even have a proper garage space. The two issues are 1- we have a couple years at least, but we'd need at least one more room even if no more kids. 2-for very similar money we'd be building equity vs flushing the money into someone else's account. There are units in the complex with more rooms, but even one more puts us solidly in the "mortgage is cheaper" category. 

I've slowly come to accept that night courses are in my future. It'll take a few years, but I can't be a parts guy forever. I don't know what to do, but ruling out hard labor means either education or a very skilled niche, and those are not mutually exclusive. I dislike the local U immensely, but one doesn't need to like a stepping stone. 

Right now, it seems availability of affordable housing is an issue in many areas. I got lucky when I relocated last year & wound up finding a place about 6 months after moving, but compromises were made to get out of paying rent & living in an apartment. Almost zero houses available for rent when I moved and the ones that were available were either McMansions or in very seedy neighborhoods. So after 2.5 months of looking for a house to rent I wound up in a tiny townhouse/apartment so I could show up for the job I had accepted.

I don't regret my purchase because it is better than apartment life, but I'm still keeping my eyes open for a better fit. So far, haven't seen anything better for anything near what my current place cost.

So be sure to get a feel for the housing market where you're considering relocating before you make a commitment. I failed to do that and my housing situation is not as nice as it was before I relocated, although the location is better (shorter commute & closer to most of the places where I do my regular shopping).

Looking at the home prices in the area, I can understand why you would want to consider relocation. But I would need a reason more than "it's expensive". I would want to be moving for a specific job, or to move to a spot I've always wanted. And with young kids, it is really nice having grandma and grandpa nearby. 
 

Additionally, I would ask yourself about how much of your community is religion based - whether that is a cultural thing or something else - because outside of Utah, New Mexico, and Idaho, I would imagine it being a significant change. Not a reason to discourage the idea, just something that I would be asking myself and my wife. 
 

EDIT: I would work on the degree, myself, and ask this question again in 5 years. 

In reply to mtn :

A good point, needing something other than "it's cheaper" to move my family. 

I don't know if I have 5 years. Or, I'm sure I do, but in the meantime I'm throwing over 40% of my gross income to rent, and nothing to show for it. Even if I had a solid career in mind right now (and I don't), I'm at best 2.5 years away, and at the end of that how long does it take in a new field to make up the lost rent and overtake my current income. I don't know those numbers, and I'm confident the payoff would be there, but I don't know when. If it's ten years, ok, 15? 20? Maybe only 3. Meanwhile, maybe the local housing market tanks, but by the time I get educated and employed and profitable, we may be further off the pace than I am now.
 

I don't want to come off as pessimistic. Things are scary and uncertain, but the future is going to be bright. 
 

Over the last few weeks ive had several good conversations with some of the smartest people I trust. That includes members of this community. I have an opportunity here and I'm doing my best to be smart about it. Nobody knows the future, but I'm going to make mine as good as I can manage. 
 

Keep the input coming. I really appreciate it. 

Steve_Jones said:

Rates will go down at some point. Buy now, refi later. 

Same advice I gave my daughter. 

Buy now while rates are driving down prices. Refi when the rates drop. 

We moved her into her first house Wednesday. 

I'm in a real estate related industry and read a lot of real estate publications. Overall transactions are WAY down. High rates, high prices and low inventory. One bright spot is new home construction. Many builders are offering interest rate incentives to help first time home buyers.

All that to say, are there new home developments nearby that you could check out?

Steve_Jones said:

Rates will go down at some point. Buy now, refi later. 

I wouldn't bank on that - rates are still below the historic average, and the rates since 2009 had been kept artificially low by the Fed's zero interest rate policy. It's a little odd that house prices haven't started falling much (yet), although they do tend to lag somewhat behind changes in interest rate and there's hardly any inventory at the moment.

OTOH, I'm totally with you regarding taking advantage of lower rates if they actually go down.

barefootcyborg5000 said:

As to the apartment, ours is nice. Rent is high here. Very high.

This is unusefully vague. You're talking about comparing costs to other locations. "Very high" changes a LOT based on location. Guiding other places that might be worth looking will matter a lot based on frame of reference.

There are units in the complex with more rooms, but even one more puts us solidly in the "mortgage is cheaper" category. 

Mortgages will almost always be cheaper when comparing like to like. The landlord is paying the mortgage price and then needs to earn income on top of it.

Keep in mind that just the mortgage/taxes/insurance/etc. are not the full cost of owning a house. You also need to cover all of the upkeep and repairs. If you are more handy than average, this is still likely to save you money compared to a landlord who is paying professionals.

I've slowly come to accept that night courses are in my future. It'll take a few years, but I can't be a parts guy forever. I don't know what to do, but ruling out hard labor means either education or a very skilled niche, and those are not mutually exclusive. I dislike the local U immensely, but one doesn't need to like a stepping stone. 

You can do online courses. You can study independently and get official certifications. Also look at Community Colleges. Not only are they less expensive, they are frequently much more directly focused on providing vocational skills.

I will also go with the idea that staying put is likely your best bet. Having grandparents who can help care for kids is worth a LOT.

For a point of comparison though, here's what things look like in Columbus:

I live in a nice neighborhood, but not in a trendy area. 3 Bedroom houses built in the 80's and 90's go for $220k - $270k. Rogue Fitness is always hiring, and the base pay for a day shift welding machine operator is $21/hour. (I'm using Rogue as an example, because they clearly list pay rates.)

I agree with the folks that are saying, bite the bullet and buy a modest property that you can comfortably afford with your current income. Trying to time the housing market is rarely a beneficial strategy.

You still have 30+ years of productive work time in you - come up with a plan to learn a skill or grow in your career that will put you on a more dynamic career path. For example, you mentioned finishing school - what degree are you planning to pursue?

In 2003, I bought a 3 bed condo for $160k.  Then, 8 years later, in 2011, in the height of the housing crisis, it took me 2 years but I sold that place for $125k.  Yeah, I sold it for 25% less than I paid for it, luckily I owned 30% of it.  I didn't have to write a check to make the place go away but I got very little money at the closing table when the house sold.  

This sounds like a sob story...but.  

This was a 10 unit condo building I lived in and very much liked living there.  A few of the other units were privately owned by separate individuals and they rented the units out. 

My memory of the specifics numbers are vague so many years later but the moral here is even though I "lost" a lot of dollars in this sale, when I calculated and divided that loss per months of living there and then even added to it my monthly mortgage and cost of improvements/repairs made, taxes, etc...I still spent less per month to live there than what the renters in the same units were paying per month. 

So, with all that said.  See if you can find a home who's monthly combined expense of mortgage, taxes, etc are doable in your personal budget.  Ask yourself, "could I afford and would I be willing to rent this place for this price?"  If yes, buy the house.   

Once that condo did sell I then bought a house that had been on the market for 3 years and I paid 37% less than their original asking price.  

We lived in FL for 6 and a half years. We went there for work reasons. We had no family in the area and while we made great friends and had a wonderful church family, we still really missed having family close by. When we did have vacations, they were mostly spent going to visit family instead of going to see and enjoy the places you really want to visit instead. It's really hard to put a price on having family close by. And as your parents get older, you'll want to spend more and more time with them, and you may regret not spending more time with them when you were able.