My car isn't really depreciating...

I suppose it may be a "modern cult classic".

Some time in the next 1-4 years, I'd like to sell my 2005 Scion xB. I like to keep an eye on the selling prices of these cars, so I can try to predict the optimal selling age/mileage.

I bought it in 2009, with a mere 22k miles on it, for $11,500. It now has 68k.

Looking at eBay and AutoTrader, xBs with similar mileage are listed from $8k-11k. Subtracting the value of the mileage I've "used", it seems I could essentially sell the car at a perceived (to me) profit if I wanted to sell now.

But like I said, I won't be ready to sell for another 1-4 years. I'm trying to determine the future value, to pick the optimal selling moment.

There's clearly a market for these little boxes, and even in 4 years, mine will be under 110k miles. I think it may still have quite a bit of value.

Hive mind, how to I predict the best time to sell?

EvanR wrote: how to I predict the best time to sell?

If I could tell you that, I'd be working the stock market from somewhere in the Cayman Islands.

If you perceive a profit sell it now. If you wait you'll just wish you had sold it.

Just drive it until you are tired of it. Value should drop each 50k from what I've seen.

Sell it when you don't want it anymore. I am kind of in the same boat with my S2000 (purchased in '10), I am pretty confident I could sell it for my purchase price today, but the only thing in a reasonable price range that I think I might rather own is a newer, lower mileage S2k the same color as the one I have.

Josh wrote: Sell it when you don't want it anymore.

Well, that's only one factor. You see, my job will end October 31, 2018. I'll be 54 years old. That's pretty old in my field, and my prospects for full-time employment won't be so fabulous.

I could probably drive the Scion, relatively trouble-free, for another 8 years. But as I approach my job-end date, I want to have a new-ish, paid off, car in my driveway.

Hence the thought of selling the Scion in 1-4 years. Just trying to find the sweet spot.

EvanR wrote:

Josh wrote: Sell it when you don't want it anymore.

Well, that's only one factor. You see, my job will end October 31, 2018. I'll be 54 years old. That's pretty old in my field, and my prospects for full-time employment won't be so fabulous. I could probably drive the Scion, relatively trouble-free, for another 8 years. But as I approach my job-end date, I want to have a new-ish, paid off, car in my driveway. Hence the thought of selling the Scion in 1-4 years. Just trying to find the sweet spot.

At this point I'm not sure if you are making a financial decision or an emotional one. If it is a financial decision, keep the Scion. By keeping it 8 years you'll save yourself depreciation and debt costs(?) on a new(er?) car for a number of years. In the realm of car ownership, most people don't realize it is almost always better to maintain a used car than to buy a new one.

I look at it this way; if you buy several new cars over the years, each successive one to replace it's aging counterpart, you're suffering a huge loss of value due to depreciation over and over again with each car purchase. 5 cars @ $20,000 each that lose half of their value in 2-5 years adds up to quite a loss.

Hence I drive old beaters that weren't worth E36 M3 to begin with.

All used cars are doing this right now. Thank your Congress Critter for Cash 4 Clunkers totally berking the used car market over.

Yes, I am 100% serious.

Javelin wrote: *All* used cars are doing this right now. Thank your Congress Critter for Cash 4 Clunkers totally berking the used car market over. Yes, I am 100% serious.

That was three years ago, man, and it didn't affect the supply of used cars that get good gas mileage.

The_Jed wrote: I look at it this way; if you buy several new cars over the years, each successive one to replace it's aging counterpart, you're suffering a huge loss of value due to depreciation over and over again with each car purchase. 5 cars @ $20,000 each that lose half of their value in 2-5 years adds up to quite a loss. Hence I drive old beaters that weren't worth E36 M3 to begin with.

But that's the whole point. This particular car doesn't seem to be losing value at the commonly accepted rate.

It originally cost $15,000 new. Now it's 8+ years later, and the KBB Private Party number is ~$8,500. Remember that I paid $11,500 4 years ago.

Assuming it's lost $3000 in value over the 46,000 miles I've driven, That's not really even depreciation, it's less loss, even, than the cost of putting the miles on the car.

Alan Cesar wrote:

Javelin wrote: *All* used cars are doing this right now. Thank your Congress Critter for Cash 4 Clunkers totally berking the used car market over. Yes, I am 100% serious.

That was three years ago, man, and it didn't affect the supply of used cars that get good gas mileage.

Yes, I know, and yes, it did. Go look up the book values on any car built from 01 to now. It's ridiculous how little they've depreciated since 2010. The triple-whammy of taking those cars out of the pool for driving, taking those engines out of JY's to keep others going, and having crap for sales on new stuff put the entire industry in a bind. It's just now getting a little better, but it's still nuts the kind of values they're getting out of cars. Heck, KBB says retail on SWMBO's Grand Prix is only $2K less then we paid for it 7 years and 65K miles ago!

Also, keep in mind that your car may be "worth" 8k, but someone will have a tough time getting an 8k dollar loan on a ten year old car. So that limits buyers to people who have cash on hand. May be better to sell when a bank will still loan money for it.

Joey

Alan Cesar wrote:

Javelin wrote: *All* used cars are doing this right now. Thank your Congress Critter for Cash 4 Clunkers totally berking the used car market over. Yes, I am 100% serious.

That was three years ago, man, and it didn't affect the supply of used cars that get good gas mileage.

Not directly, anyway. The intended goal was to get the poor fuel economy vehicles off the road in order to increase the nation's fleet average fuel economy. In this, it did succeed. But fewer cars in the used market overall still means fewer cars, period.

joey48442 wrote: Also, keep in mind that your car may be "worth" 8k, but someone will have a tough time getting an 8k dollar loan on a ten year old car. So that limits buyers to people who have cash on hand. May be better to sell when a bank will still loan money for it. Joey

Great point! I'm thinking/hoping that in another 3-4 years, the car will still be worth $3-4k, and that's a much easier price point to sell a car to the general public.

Javelin wrote: *All* used cars are doing this right now. Thank your Congress Critter for Cash 4 Clunkers totally berking the used car market over. Yes, I am 100% serious.

We're still rehashing that one?

While I won't argue the perception C4C did to the used market, in reality the effect was minimal compared to the number of cars that leave US roads due to normal attrition every year.

My 2006 Scion xB, same story. I think I'm keeping it longer than I planned! (I have a friend wanting to sell her 2005 xB at the moment for $5k)

Alan Cesar wrote:

Javelin wrote: *All* used cars are doing this right now. Thank your Congress Critter for Cash 4 Clunkers totally berking the used car market over. Yes, I am 100% serious.

That was three years ago, man, and it didn't affect the supply of used cars that get good gas mileage.

I think he's right. Used cars in the States used to be pennies on the dollar compared to here. Now it's the other way around. The prices I see people asking for used stuff over there is ridiculous.

Ian F wrote:

Javelin wrote: *All* used cars are doing this right now. Thank your Congress Critter for Cash 4 Clunkers totally berking the used car market over. Yes, I am 100% serious.

We're still rehashing that one? While I won't argue the perception C4C did to the used market, in reality the effect was minimal compared to the number of cars that leave US roads due to normal attrition every year.

Depends if you are in the market for a cheap truck or not.

IDK what the hell is up with used cars these days. This year I was jumping up and down happy I got a 14 year old Prizm with 127k and minimal issues for $1200. A few years back, that was the standard going rate. There's an old plastic clad olds midcompact whatever down the road from me with $1700 on the windshield. The other day, in Detroit, I saw a 90s Cavalier with a hole rusted through the door, for $1600, a year ago those were $700. A couple months ago I sold my well maintained, but tired and rather rusty underneath 200k mile sunfire I bought 3 years ago for $470 for $1k and thought I ripped the dude off. I sold a bonneville parts car with no bearings left in the motor and 6 cans of great stuff sealing the trunk for 800.

Its not like scrap is through the roof or anything like that, people have just gone crazy. Do new cars really suck that much?

For this particular car (1rst gen Scion xB), I think it's a few things:

Kids still love to fix these things up, therefore popular Carries a crap-load of stuff and ISN'T a minvan Decent gas mileage

Same with the Honda Element. Not sure why they stopped making them, they were popular and very useful. My fiancee will keep hers till it rusts into tiny bits.

Ian F wrote:

Javelin wrote: *All* used cars are doing this right now. Thank your Congress Critter for Cash 4 Clunkers totally berking the used car market over. Yes, I am 100% serious.

We're still rehashing that one? While I won't argue the perception C4C did to the used market, in reality the effect was minimal compared to the number of cars that leave US roads due to normal attrition every year.

Exactly. Cars for Clunkers took ~690k cars off the road. Last year the US scrapped 14 million cars. Cars for Clunkers took a tiny part of the market. The real reason is the economic downturn over the past few years that has resulted in people holding on to cars longer then they used to and also high scrap values mean that cars at the very bottom of the market are more likely to get scrapped then they used to be. Both decrease supply thus driving up price.

I agree, if anything the xB is the kind of car there should be more of on the road due to C4C. People ostensibly traded in their clunkers and bought better gas mileage machines to replace them, so there should be a glut of high-mpg used cars.

I think the reality of the used car market is that manufacturers sold relatively fewer new cars in the past few years, and people are hanging onto their old used cars longer, so there is a glut of brand new cars at the same time there is a dearth of 2-6 year old used cars.

Back to the OP - I'd sell it now, or in about a year. You can get very good deals on new vehicles right now because manufacturers have ramped up production in anticipation to increased demand when the economy recovers. You can take advantage of the current disparity of supply and demand in both your used vehicle value, and a new car discount.

Jerry wrote: Same with the Honda Element. Not sure why they stopped making them, they were popular and very useful. My fiancee will keep hers till it rusts into tiny bits.

The Element had pretty poor resale value though - I bought my '06 model in 2011 with 60k miles on it. It was fully loaded, probably cost around $26k new. 5 years later I paid $11000.

The mk1 xB has the advantage of getting great gas mileage, especially as compared to its replacement. That and its modern classic design will keep values high.

93EXCivic wrote:

Ian F wrote:

Javelin wrote: *All* used cars are doing this right now. Thank your Congress Critter for Cash 4 Clunkers totally berking the used car market over. Yes, I am 100% serious.

We're still rehashing that one? While I won't argue the perception C4C did to the used market, in reality the effect was minimal compared to the number of cars that leave US roads due to normal attrition every year.

Exactly. Cars for Clunkers took ~690k cars off the road. Last year the US scrapped 14 million cars. Cars for Clunkers took a tiny part of the market. The real reason is the economic downturn over the past few years that has resulted in people holding on to cars longer then they used to and also high scrap values mean that cars at the very bottom of the market are more likely to get scrapped then they used to be. Both decrease supply thus driving up price.

That's my take on it, too. People losing jobs or uncertain about their economic future either keep their old cars or are more likely to shop for a used car instead of a new one. The perception that it's been getting better lately echoes the overall improvement in the rest of the market.