I don't think people understand the human cost here yet. This is a culture that in many ways wholly defines itself, thrives if you will, on productivity.
shipping lines & logistics, farm & food, manufacturing, electrical capacity with rolling blackouts, communications...
EVERYTHING tied to productivity has been reduced in capacity or destroyed.
I We are in uncharted waters here people, beware. This is why Einstein never combed his hair.
minimac wrote: Alfa- Apparently they didn't teach reading comprehension when you studied the nuclear industry. Re read my post. I didn't say steam was hydrogen. I didn't say U- 235 was being released.I didn't say the vessel blew up. There's quite a difference between the containment building and the containment vessel. Hydrogen and oxygen blow up real good-ask the captain of the Hidenburg. And a "fuel meltdown" takes place far below 3000C (C=Celsius--can anyone even measure that much?) You may have faith in the engineering. You are not exactly unbiased. I have been a proponent of nuclear power and make my living in it. But I know when I have been lied to by utilities( Davis Besse, Braidwood, Vermont Yankee), and the NRC(TMI, San Onofre). Shoot me for being a skeptic. I know what a 40 year old reactor vessel looks like. I'm working one right now. So don't presume I'm making things up. BTW, Japan just announced that rods are not only damaged but are approximately 1/2 exposed, and are evacuating an even larger area. And that's after all the PHDs and Engineers said all's safe and there is no threat --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- As far as TMI: "On March 28, 1979, there was a cooling system malfunction that caused a partial melt-down of the reactor core. This loss of coolant accident resulted in the release of a significant amount of radioactivity, estimated at 43,000 curies (1.59 PBq) of radioactive krypton gas, but less than 20 curies (740 GBq) of the especially hazardous iodine-131, into the surrounding environment." Quoted for truth. now where's my tinfoil hat?
So, since you are such an expert, the whole alamist thing about the china syndrome and a chernoble like disater must have been a joke, right? Since neither will happen.
Rod damage takes place at 2200C, yes, but the fuel cermatic is 3000C. But you know that already....
So if you were not implying that u235 is being released, why did you bring it up with the alarming sentace about radioactive steam? You should know that u235 won't get carried out in the steam. Why bring up that hydrogen is radioative- you fully know that the half life is very short. you don't even mention the cesium and iodine that is being released in your previous post- but you must know about that, too- being a 30 year expert in the field.
Funny how you say that the Hindenburg exploded- it didn't. It burnt. BIG difference. HUGE difference. Yes, H2 burns well. Can run a car off of it. But even if it did explode, it does not have the energy to rupture one of those tanks. It's why the tanks are designed that way- but you should know that already- since you know that multiple redundancy is built into everything. The H2 is burning quite quickly- but it's not exploding.
You presume a Chernobyl. How is that not making things up? You know that there's no graphite present to catch on fire to take various radioative materials along with the soot. The only thing that's causing the fires is H2- you already know there's nothing else flamable, except furniture, in a boiling reactor. And for sure, nothing to maintain a Chernobyl fire.
You presume China Syndrome. Again, how is that not making things up? You know that both TMI and LOFT didn't show that happening, and even if it did, there are multiple containment systems to prevent that from happening. But you know that already, too....
Maybe I'm trying to figure out how the TMI release of significant radiation led to how many deaths, again? And how that release corresponds to a China Syndrome or Chernobyl. IIRC, nobody died at TMI. The only deaths in the US caused by a nuclear reactor were in the Idaho desert during some experimentation on a mobile army power unit, and even that has some back mystery behind it.
I also pointed out that there still stands a good chance of radioactive release. But, in the scheme of things, being crass to the workers who are working on it, they are small potatos compared to the rest of the damage.
None the less, lets say that your worst fears come true. That still pales in comparison to what happened Friday. Can we at least not forget that?
Hey Nuke Nerds!
Great conversation here about the nuclear issues:
http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3396817
Xceler8x wrote: Hey Nuke Nerds! Great conversation here about the nuclear issues: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3396817
ftfy
Xceler8x wrote: Hey Nuke Nerds! Great conversation here about the nuclear issues: http://forums.somethingawful.com/showthread.php?threadid=3396817
Thank you for posting that. Some of the best information I've seen.
I am currently finding one of my predominant information sources to be a little questionable, as it's two professionals in the field seem to be having a rather emotionally charged peeing match. 
It's OK, guys. I still love you, and respect you. Just having a little trouble weeding through the sensationalistic and sarcastic name-calling.
Thanks again, Xceler8x. 
SVreX wrote: Thank you for posting that. Some of the best information I've seen. I am currently finding one of my predominant information sources to be a little questionable, as it's two professionals in the field seem to be having a rather emotionally charged peeing match.
I've floundered enough threads. I figured I could be useful for once. 
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-radiation-leaking-directly-into-idUSTRE72E7B220110315
z31maniac wrote: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-radiation-leaking-directly-into-idUSTRE72E7B220110315
They're measuring awfully close and keeping the article vague for fear-mongering purposes. Tokyo is still only seeing single and double digits. It'll dissapate by the time it gets there.
I never claimed to be smart, much less an expert. Like I said, re read my post. Look at the latest news. It keeps getting worse,(or is it my imagination) as more news comes out of Japan. I'm fresh out of pee. I'll just continue to watch what unfolds. Oh yeah., that was a hell of a hydrogen" burn" that was felt for 25 miles. I am done being baited and will admit defeat to the awesomeness of engineers. All hail Alfa. But all this truly does pale, compared to the human suffering.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-radiation-leaking-directly-into-idUSTRE72E7B220110315
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-quake-nuclear-france-idUSTRE72E3UB20110315
Minimac - we know you're concerned and we're all watching this. Things could get realer real fast. Here's to hoping those reactors come under control sooner than later.
In the meantime...anyone investing in coal?
Natural gas and lead futures.
minimac wrote: ....Oh yeah., that was a hell of a hydrogen" burn" that was felt for 25 miles...
What else would it be? There is nothing to explode in a nuclear reactor except the super heated separated water (Oxygen and hydrogen) that is dumped on it and maybe some fuel for running emergency generators (not likely to be near the reactor).
It's starting to sound like at least one of the reactors (primary containment vessel cracked apparently) is going to end up in a concrete sarcophagus (Chernobyl style). It also sounds like the rods are melting on the others, but as long as the primary vessel is intact, they should be able to be dealt with.
Hey Alfa (you sound like you know a thing or two): I have heard these reactors have a "core catcher" built into the design. If one of these cores totally melts down will it just borrow it's way into the core catcher and sit there? (to be covered rather extensively later I assume)
aircooled wrote:minimac wrote: ....Oh yeah., that was a hell of a hydrogen" burn" that was felt for 25 miles...What else would it be? There is nothing to explode in a nuclear reactor except the super heated separated water (Oxygen and hydrogen) that is dumped on it and maybe some fuel for running emergency generators (not likely to be near the reactor). It's starting to sound like at least one of the reactors (primary containment vessel cracked apparently) is going to end up in a concrete sarcophagus (Chernobyl style). It also sounds like the rods are melting on the others, but as long as the primary vessel is intact, they should be able to be dealt with. Hey Alfa (you sound like you know a thing or two): I have heard these reactors have a "core catcher" built into the design. If one of these cores totally melts down will it just borrow it's way into the core catcher and sit there? (to be covered rather extensively later I assume)
I wish the media would stop calling these "burns" "explosions" and quit speeding up the footage of the containment buildings burning to make it look like they are exploding. Everybody just needs to chill, this situation is under control- Heck lets you and me and alpha volunteer to go over there and pour some concrete on the borrow.
aircooled wrote:minimac wrote: ....Oh yeah., that was a hell of a hydrogen" burn" that was felt for 25 miles...What else would it be? There is nothing to explode in a nuclear reactor except the super heated separated water (Oxygen and hydrogen) that is dumped on it and maybe some fuel for running emergency generators (not likely to be near the reactor). It's starting to sound like at least one of the reactors (primary containment vessel cracked apparently) is going to end up in a concrete sarcophagus (Chernobyl style). It also sounds like the rods are melting on the others, but as long as the primary vessel is intact, they should be able to be dealt with. Hey Alfa (you sound like you know a thing or two): I have heard these reactors have a "core catcher" built into the design. If one of these cores totally melts down will it just borrow it's way into the core catcher and sit there? (to be covered rather extensively later I assume)
I know enough, but from what I can tell, yes- the core catcher is just a last way to contain whatever melts into a single mass. And it goes into very deep water, which is supposed to also slow reactions down by hardening up the outer part of the core. I wouldn't call it Chernobyl style- since that was contained by pouring tons and tons of concrete on the burning reactor to put out the graphite fire, slow the remaining reaction down, and provide containment to the system- I don't think anyone ever planned on doing that. But if this goes into the core catcher- it's doing what it's designed to do.
As for the comustable materials present... thank you for pointing that out.
And also, I appreciate the reminder that these are fast burns, and not explosions. there's a very, very big difference between the two. Even if the steel containment vessel ruptures, it's not an explosion- it's a pressure rupture.
But, again, with all of this focus on the reactor, we miss the much, much bigger picture. With so many thousands without shelter, I hear the weather is going to be cold for the last week of winter. And with the roads so battered, it's going to be hard to truck in food and water while the basics are reconstructed. As for the rest of Japan, it's pretty significant that 7% of ALL the power generation was knocked out. We've gotten a few calls from Japanese equipment suppliers, who (thankfully) were not affected physically. But we have to plan on delays.
I still can't imagine how much time it's going to take to clean this all up. Or where to put it all. OTOH, it appears that lots of cars will be needed... If you are in the lumber supply business- plan on turning up the volume.
I read in the SomethingAwful link that there is a concrete pad under the reactors that would stop the core from melting into the earth if there is a meltdown. Is that the "core catcher" you're talking about?
Yes, supposedly part of the design. It makes me wonder, since almost all (all?) of the radiation being released is the result of trying to cool the core, maybe just let it melt down into the catcher? Pretty extreme I know, but hey, if they aren't going to stop it, why make it worse.
(I suspect there are people with far more knowledge of this situation that could discount this idea)
minimac wrote: I never claimed to be smart, much less an expert. Like I said, re read my post. Look at the latest news. It keeps getting worse,(or is it my imagination) as more news comes out of Japan. I'm fresh out of pee. I'll just continue to watch what unfolds. Oh yeah., that was a hell of a hydrogen" burn" that was felt for 25 miles. I am done being baited and will admit defeat to the awesomeness of engineers. All hail Alfa. But all this truly does pale, compared to the human suffering. http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-radiation-leaking-directly-into-idUSTRE72E7B220110315 http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/15/us-japan-quake-nuclear-france-idUSTRE72E3UB20110315
Read the first one closely, though... Those measurements are being taken AT the site.
The nearest large concentration of people... they're only measuring 40 parts or lower. Not harmful.
SVreX wrote: I am currently finding one of my predominant information sources to be a little questionable, as it's two professionals in the field seem to be having a rather emotionally charged peeing match.
Working for Ford makes somebody in expert in nuclear energy?!?! Sweet!
Javelin wrote:SVreX wrote: I am currently finding one of my predominant information sources to be a little questionable, as it's two professionals in the field seem to be having a rather emotionally charged peeing match.Working for Ford makes somebody in expert in nuclear energy?!?! Sweet!
So knowing something more than the average person is bad? It's a sin to pay attention to thing that don't always apply to you?
I never claimed to be an expert, but for someone who does claim to be part of the industry for 30 years to put this anywhere near Chernobyl is pretty interesting. Or thinking that TMI was a major disaster- accident- yea- a very serious one. But one that was less hamful than the pile up on the way to work that killed a driver. this is TMI, again. And even with a major back up system failing in a way that someone missed, it's still holding in the dangerous part.
so sorry that I know something.....
Just read an AP story that they are losing hope about the offical 8000 people who are missing.... 
Offical loss is now just over 4300.
official count in temporary shelters- 430,000. 
Food short, water short, and no electricity....
alfadriver wrote:Javelin wrote:So knowing something more than the average person is bad? It's a sin to pay attention to thing that don't always apply to you? I never claimed to be an expert, but for someone who does claim to be part of the industry for 30 years to put this anywhere near Chernobyl is pretty interesting. Or thinking that TMI was a major disaster- accident- yea- a very serious one. But one that was less hamful than the pile up on the way to work that killed a driver. this is TMI, again. And even with a major back up system failing in a way that someone missed, it's still holding in the dangerous part. so sorry that I know *something*.....SVreX wrote: I am currently finding one of my predominant information sources to be a little questionable, as it's two professionals in the field seem to be having a rather emotionally charged peeing match.Working for Ford makes somebody in expert in nuclear energy?!?! Sweet!
I eat cookies like Alfa eats knowledge.
alfadriver wrote:Javelin wrote:So knowing something more than the average person is bad? It's a sin to pay attention to thing that don't always apply to you? I never claimed to be an expert, but for someone who does claim to be part of the industry for 30 years to put this anywhere near Chernobyl is pretty interesting. Or thinking that TMI was a major disaster- accident- yea- a very serious one. But one that was less hamful than the pile up on the way to work that killed a driver. this is TMI, again. And even with a major back up system failing in a way that someone missed, it's still holding in the dangerous part. so sorry that I know *something*.....SVreX wrote: I am currently finding one of my predominant information sources to be a little questionable, as it's two professionals in the field seem to be having a rather emotionally charged peeing match.Working for Ford makes somebody in expert in nuclear energy?!?! Sweet!
So when somebody else "knows something" they are idiots becuase they don't work IN the industry (see your arguements in the DBW and other threads), yet when YOU know it it's because your are teh E36 M3?
Please man, you are an internet cowboy who thinks they know everything and will piss all over a thread until the other guy gives in, regardless of whether or not you're right (which you usually ain't).
That's my piece on this BS.
Back to the real story, Japan is in serious trouble. When the last big quake/tsunami hit, they denied all foreign aid. This time they are accepting it, and not just from allies like us and the UK, but professional enemies/competitors like South Korea and China. Production will be off in everything, which will majorly damage their psyche as a nation, and they have thousands of deaths to deal with.
Som of the photos of devestated areas look like Hiroshima after the bomb, just flattened. This will be an extremely long and painful recovery, and I wish them all the best.
As for the nuclear crisis, Japan has one of the safest programs around (and I am a huge supporter of nuclear power), yet even they are struggling with this one. I wish both that they were more forthcoming with info, and that the news (especially here in the US) would stop sensationalizing what has been going on. I think it's safe to say that the main plant having issues (with two containment buildings destroyed already) will be a total loss. If they can keep the contamination and deaths to a minimum, it will be a minor miracle in this disaster.
alfadriver wrote: Just read an AP story that they are losing hope about the offical 8000 people who are missing....
Thanks, Alfa, for keeping us focused on the priority.
Tremendously heartbreaking.
In reply to Javelin:
Uh- when I'm wrong, I have been known to post corrections. And when I know nothing about X, I don't even post. I'm sorry if I think that what I find multiple references to seems to be more correct than not, and that I actually think through an issue to understand what in the world is going on.
Like here- this is a water reactor, so there's no graphite around to catch on fire, and carry radioactive ash around the world. What is being released is cesium and iodine which have any significant half life- water, h2, N2, o2. It takes just a little research and reading to know that. I also know that the US nuclear industry tested similar scenarios at LOFT. Go look up the Idaho National Lab- read what they have been doing for the last 60 years.
If you think I'm normally wrong, well, that's your problem.
anyway, one wonders how many years many of these areas will take to rebuild. And all those coastal cities will, without a doubt.
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