Race Fuel For A Lifetime

OK, after complete check of the snopes site, the USGS info is legit, but there were a bunch of other "hype" claims in the email that contained the USGS link.

So, here's the USGS link again:

There's enough to go around

I stand behind my original statement.

oh jeez, these things.

ok, the usgs publishes these "fact sheets" or whatever now and again, and someone always latches on to them (not that thats what you're doing, i'm just preloading here) and starts screaming about how the oil companies won't drill the leases they've got, and how theres all this oil down there, they just won't go get it out because they want to make more money (who doesn't?).

the key here is the title, "undiscovered" and "assessment" meaning that nobody is actually sure its there, and its an estimate of what might be there, if there is any actually there.

now, assuming there is actually oil there, and in the amounts they believe, theres another caveat. another sheet that usgs publishes are assessments of "technically recoverable reserves". technically recoverable meaning, if cost was no object, we could get X barrels out of the ground. problem with that is, cost is an object, and at some point, getting that last drop of oil out of the hole isn't worth what it costs to get it out.

now, back to north dakota, this stuff is probably, along with some other smaller players, all in the Bakken formation ( note also "An April 2008 USGS report estimated the amount of technically recoverable oil in the Bakken Formation at 3.0 to 4.3 billion barrels (680,000,000 m3), with a mean of 3.65 billion.[4] The state of North Dakota also released a report that month which estimated that there are 2.1 billion barrels (330,000,000 m3) of technically recoverable oil in the Bakken.[5]" theres that "technically recoverable" again) which is an oil shale, meaning its an unconventional reservoir, meaning it takes lots of $$$ for less oil than a conventional play.

here's where the economics come in, when the oil price is high, like last summer, the companies can make money drilling unconventional reservoirs like the bakken. when the oil price is low, those leases don't get drilled.

so to answer your comment, yes, gas for life, but only if you don't mind paying $15/gallon

sorry for the long ranting post, but it just gets my feathers up when people use these estimates as an indication that it would be easy, or even economically feasible, to go get that oil until the price is over $100/barrell again

btw, before someone starts going off on the big, bad oil companies, the number of millionares in north dakota doubled or tripled last year... from like 24 to 50-75! lol

Strizzo, i question whether or not your definition matches the USGS. I quote from their report:

Technically recoverable oil resources are those producible using currently available technology and industry practices.

Shale extraction is not currently available technology and industry practice, is it?

i'm asking because i don't know, and it sounds like you might.

edit: i might be getting mixed up between shale and "oil sands", because i slept or read Hot Rod during geology class.

and poopshovel is right, it would be cool if it was all on fire.

One more vote for fire.

AngryCorvair wrote: Strizzo, i question whether or not your definition matches the USGS. I quote from their report:

Technically recoverable oil resources are those producible using currently available technology and industry practices.

Shale extraction is not currently available technology and industry practice, is it? i'm asking because i don't know, and it sounds like you might. edit: i might be getting mixed up between shale and "oil sands", because i slept or read Hot Rod during geology class. and poopshovel is right, it would be cool if it was all on fire.

oil shales are being produced out of right now, they just have a lot lower and slower ultimate recovery from the same wells in a more porous sand.

my beef is the difference between "technically recoverable" and "economically recoverable" guess which one the oil companies really care about.

basically, if a well doesn't or isn't expected to produce enough to pay for what it costs to recover the oil, then all available technology and industry practice will not be used. if a well is near the end of production, you can keep making 5,000 barrell per year, or spend a bunch and hope you make 15,000 for a year to pay for the waterflood or whatever is deemed appropriate at the time.

so, if a well has a high initial cost to drill, and then is going to produce very little, it is also less likely that there will be "no expenses spared" on all of the wells drilled, so the ultimate recovery numbers will miss the usgs numbers by a lot in most cases.

EDIT: sorry, forgot to mention: oil sands are also being produced at this time. its basically a mining operation to dig up the sand, then heat it up to thin the oil so it flows, filter out the sand and put it back in the ground.