Rons said:
In reply to RossD :
Given you're in your forever home there are ways to future proof it. Can stairs be eliminated? Is there a bathroom with an accessible shower? Can you add an elevator? I ask these questions from talking to my sister - she is a Community Care Worker for Vancouver Coastal Health and when a residence is properly set up many people are able to age in place
I too have stairs in my forever property. But there are plans for an elevator when needed. The 3rd floor will no longer be used for an office but guest quarters. ( or a live in caretaker ) And the first floor will remain my shop and the entrance to the elevator. Leaving the main level with everything such as bathrooms shower laundry room ( adjacent to master Bedroom ).
night lights hardwired throughout the house. Lever door handles instead of knobs. ( easier if arthritis crippled hands ) tilt in windows for ease of cleaning. enSuite with night lites. Doors large enough for wheel chairs, Handlebars around tub and walk-in shower large enough for two. All hardwood flooring with no rugs for tripping hazard.
pheller
UltimaDork
8/26/21 6:44 p.m.
Housing Prices still crazy here in AZ.
Supply still low.
Lumber prices dropping, so I'm surprised there isn't a boom in new construction. Word on the street is were back to 2018 lumber prices, ie, super cheap.
It's like, everyone that wanted to move in 2020 COVID lockdown did so, now there is a slight lull.
Oddly enough, quite a few homes in my neighborhood that have sold...haven't been moved into yet. Is that the next wave? Investors and AirBNB buyers?
On STR's - I've also heard that public outcries against AirBNB homes is starting to shift political tides, even in traditionally conservative/libertarians areas. Here in AZ the state doesn't want to touch the issue, but HOA's do have the power to fine STRs, and many are really upping those fines while encouraging neighbors to turn in folks who are doing it. Are these action slowing AirBNB property investment? Who knows.
In reply to pheller :
Around here we are steadily inundated with higher and higher offers for really insanely expensive properties.
I haven't figured out the logic yet. Prices offered according to neighbors are at seriously higher than market. This is an area with multi million dollar homes. Someone has deep pockets. Probably playing a long game
pheller
Oddly enough, quite a few homes in my neighborhood that have sold...haven't been moved into yet. Is that the next wave? Investors and AirBNB buyers?
A lot of money has gone to corporations getting into long term rentals. Given the difference between rental rates and housing values, it kind of feels like they are buying in at the top, but then if new construction doesn't pick up, they'll make out like bandits. I've even heard rumors that some of the rental companies are buying new single family homes, not just used ones.
My neck of the woods is fairly insulated from real estate volatility. We saw swings from 2006 - 2010 or so, but not as violently as most of the country. That said, my house just appraised for about 30% more than it did 3 years ago. We've done some updates to help that front, but none that should that bring kind of money. Honestly, I'd be happier if it had appraised lower. Less risk of property taxes increasing that way.
calteg
SuperDork
8/12/22 9:11 a.m.
We bought in 2008. Both Zillow and Redfin estimates say it's worth double what we paid, though I have noticed their estimates dropped by about $20k from July to August
Even prices in Omaha, which is as about the worse place in the history of man for property appreciation, is up 20% right now.
My one rental has been in the family since new in 98 when my mom bought it for 102K. It's now worth 245K with about 30K of that appreciation coming in the last year.
The flippers finally found Omaha after being priced out of other cities as you are seeing a ton of flipped houses mid-town.
In reply to bmw88rider :
Blame it on the techies. They are driving up prices because they can work from home. They Are moving to less crowded center of the country states.
Since families could be on both coasts it's often a compromise for a pair to live 1/2 way to each family group. California is still growing in population but only a few percentage points compared to the big growth in the past.
That and the REIT's investment in rental properties is adding to property values.
Finally, comparing the global price of homes to American prices. Property here in America is bargain basement with astonishingly low taxes.
( actually world prices is the number one driver of appreciation).
Jerry
PowerDork
8/14/22 7:36 a.m.
calteg said:
We bought in 2008. Both Zillow and Redfin estimates say it's worth double what we paid, though I have noticed their estimates dropped by about $20k from July to August
I got bored at work Friday afternoon and looked up my address, decided to check StreetView (still PO's old van from 2011) & saw Zillow and Realtor links. Paid $130K Sep 2011 and both estimated $230-$239K. If you've seen my house you would know it is not a $240K house. (Dayton OH)
I have a friend that's been trying to sell her parent's old house she's lived in and buy something new. She started looking right about early last year & has not been having a good time with it.
In reply to frenchyd :
Not really the case as much in Nebraska. It's a very high tax state with winters that will chill the bones of any California transplant. Most only stay 1-2 years then run for the hills from what I've seen.
What you are seeing more of is people coming home that left. I'm one of them. I lived in Texas for almost 20 years. I left when my mom's health went south and decided to stay after she died. COVID has reminded a lot of people that being close to family is a good thing and a lot of people have prioritized their life differently. I took a significant pay cut to stay here and to be honest, it was worth every penny to get close to the family again.
Omaha has always been a working class IT city anyway. It is the intersection of 3 major fiber channels in the US and 90% of the data transported in America goes through Omaha. Combine that with cheap land and energy with the ability to chill the DC for cheap in the winter, there is a ton of DC operations there. Combine that with the whole underground bunker system that the military sold off, there is a lot of places there to live and work. Most people don't understand how much infrastructure is here. There was a reason we were listed #2 on the nuclear threat list for the longest time. A strike to Omaha would bring the US to it's knees.
Houses continue to sell here in north OTP Atlanta - but I do see fewer on the market. Recent sales have come slower (after after everything sold in hours for the previous two years).
This seems due to mortgage rates and economic uncertainty. Some of the recent sales in my hood look empty indicating possible REIT type deals.
...Minimal supply just might keep the prices up. Especially where I'm at - not too far from the city.
In reply to bmw88rider :
Look at populations that are growing. Most are in fly over land. It takes a relatively few to increase the population where there are small numbers.
major area's like New York, Houston, Los Angles, Dallas, San Francisco, etc are crowded. Smaller urban centers offer a slower pace but enough quality of life things to feel comfortable.
REITs are noticing those trends and buying houses in those places. Often people leave crowded urban centers after bankruptcy and foreclosure and can no longer qualify to purchase a suitable home. So they rent.
At least in MO, NE, and SD it's really been very steady for the last 3 decades.
Major cities are seeing about a .75% to 1% growth in population annually. There are just more people out there with our older population living longer. Combine that with a lot of cheap money and people rushing to get it before it was gone and you see it in the tread charts all over the country. There will be a pause that is already starting to form and probably a dip in a lot places.
Will cities like Austin be cheap again? Not likely because that ship has sailed. The days were I could buy my house in Austin for $130K like I did in 2006 are ancient history. Will cities like Omaha come back down a bit? Yes and it already is to be honest. Great houses are going quick but most are staying on the market longer and taking price cuts to sell.
Approaching over 800$ an interior square foot here for houses that are OK, ~1000$ for renovated. 1100sqf house across the street just sold for 1.25 in cash. no garage two bedroom on a 2800sqf lots.
God knows what mine is worth with a 12,000sqf lot and a water view and three times the house. Neighbor who is a agent says 2.4-2.5 million easy which is hilarious as I paid less then 920K les then 8 years ago.
We get this newsletter from the local agent every month like clockwork. Average down payment in our zip code is 87% down from 95%. So almost everything is cash and almost everyone is from out of the city moving in.
In reply to wearymicrobe :
I suspect 2.5 is light even in a down market. It depends on which community of course but an ocean view and that large a lot?
Joe, my best friend recent sold his place in San Diego and got 1.990 for it. Similar size lot but no view.
Bought a bigger new house in a new development in Missouri for less than $400,000. Even after paying for that and paying off his Mortgage he has close to a million left for retirement.
Plus he doesn't have to deal with homeless people.
Looking at potential locations to relocate to and noting housing prices in those areas, I've repeatedly gotten, "That's not a $XXX,000 house..."
Yeah. Now it is. It may not have been 5 years ago, but that's what the market looks like now.
It does seem like the market has cooled marginally of late. Not so much asking prices dropping, but houses not immediately being snatched up for more than asking price.
wearymicrobe said:
Approaching over 800$ an interior square foot here for houses that are OK
That sound about right...taking the average between Zillow & Redfin puts my house at $649 per Sq. Ft.. I'm in Ventura and have a view but not of the ocean.
frenchyd said:
In reply to wearymicrobe :
I suspect 2.5 is light even in a down market. It depends on which community of course but an ocean view and that large a lot?
Joe, my best friend recent sold his place in San Diego and got 1.990 for it. Similar size lot but no view.
Bought a bigger new house in a new development in Missouri for less than $400,000. Even after paying for that and paying off his Mortgage he has close to a million left for retirement.
Plus he doesn't have to deal with homeless people.
I actually agree but I just don't want to believe the house is worth that much. I have been approached a few times for work outside of California and taking almost 2+ million in equity means the wife can retire and I can go back to a startup and take stock over salary. Also city is rezoning due to the trolley being put in, we are multifamily zoned already but capped at 30 feet, accelerated and discounted permits as well. If they go up to 40 feet then who ever wants the land can build ~6-7 townhomes on the lot we have with double garages underneath.
Whole family is here and if I leave and prices keep climbing I am not going to be able to buy back in with what I have. It's a nice problem to have but it is one of many golden handcuffs I am dealing with right now.
