risk avoidance and the big spike

http://io9.com/#!5751216/would-putting-a-spike-in-the-middle-of-your-steering-wheel-make-you-safer

Driving is a subject of much study in the area of risk compensation. A huge number of people drive, or are driven, and although it can result in devastating consequences, it's done often enough that it feels routine, safe, and boring. Seatbelts are a good idea for drivers, but can be a bad idea for pedestrians and bikers. An experiment in which people drove go-karts showed that those who switched from an unencumbered ride to being strapped in safely responded by increasing their speed. Conversely, when Sweden switched the side of the road that people drove on - something that might lead to more accidents by confused or distracted motorists - the accident rate dropped. It only crept up again when drivers started to become accustomed to the change. One of the main pieces of ammunition for proponents of risk compensation is a survey of British drivers. Truck and cab drivers readily admitted that if their vehicles were loaded with explosives they would drive more slowly. Gordon Tullock, an economist, once joked that if the government wanted people to drive safely, they'd mandate a spike in the middle of each steering wheel. Of course such a thing would never happen — nor should it, morally — but ensuring the person most in control of a situation will be damaged by their mistakes can lead to much safer behavior than ensuring that they'll be protected, even if others won't be. Everyone's careful not to incite a revolution if they know they'll be the first up against the wall.

What we're talking about here is called "risk compensation" and is well documented across academic disciplines.

wikipedia article

This explains a lot of the winter weather driving that inspires so much conversation around here.

You put a spike on my steering wheel and I will cut the effen thing off and drive faster than everyone else. Sounds like a good plan!

ShadowSix wrote: What we're talking about here is called "risk compensation" and is well documented across academic disciplines. wikipedia article This explains a lot of the winter weather driving that inspires so much conversation around here.

They used the term "risk compensation" in the article....I just messed up the title of the thread. Good wiki article, BTW.

OK, seatbelts and ABS have not saved as many lives as predicted because people compensated by driving beyond their abilities. This makes me doubt the future efficacy of the mandated electronic stability control that we're putting on all cars in 2012....

In reply to JoeyM:

I agree. I think that the only significant improvement in motorist fatality numbers will come when we give people the option not to drive. I think we've missed the boat on mass transit here in most of the US, so I'm waiting for the self-driving car, I think most people would prefer to watch a television program or read a bbok.

ShadowSix wrote: I agree. I think that the only significant improvement in motorist fatality numbers will come when we give people the option not to drive. I think we've missed the boat on mass transit here in most of the US, so I'm waiting for the self-driving car, I think most people would prefer to watch a television program or read a book.

I agree as well. And in all honesty, I'd be first in line for a self-driving car... as much as I love driving, I hate commuting...

I don't think people drive beyond their abilities because they don't think they will get hurt, I think they drive beyond them because it doesn't feel like you are beyond them.

Ian F wrote: I agree as well. And in all honesty, I'd be first in line for a self-driving car... as much as I love driving, I hate commuting...

Amen. I have to spend time in Denmark on occasion for business and as much as I love my cars and love to drive I'd happily take my morning slog on a train if we had a system like theirs. Or an automated car, or any other conveyance that could just wake me up when I get there :)

ShadowSix wrote: I think we've missed the boat on mass transit here in most of the US

It's not that we missed the boat on mass transit, it's that we're too danged big for mass transit to be effective except in pockets. You can't tie all the areas together effectively at a cost anyone can afford. Individual transportation units make more sense except in the densest of areas.

JoeyM wrote: OK, seatbelts and ABS have not saved as many lives as predicted because people compensated by driving beyond their abilities. This makes me doubt the future efficacy of the mandated electronic stability control that we're putting on all cars in 2012....

If you try to idiot-proof something, they just build a better idiot.

JoeyM wrote: OK, seatbelts and ABS have not saved as many lives as predicted because people compensated by driving beyond their abilities. This makes me doubt the future efficacy of the mandated electronic stability control that we're putting on all cars in 2012....

For what it's worth, they announced recently on the news here that the annual number of deaths in car accidents in Minnesota has dropped to its lowest level since the 1940s. Considering how many more cars are on the road now that's quite a statistic. I'm sure there are many factors but car safety features is certainly one of them.

stuart in mn wrote:

JoeyM wrote: OK, seatbelts and ABS have not saved as many lives as predicted because people compensated by driving beyond their abilities. This makes me doubt the future efficacy of the mandated electronic stability control that we're putting on all cars in 2012....

For what it's worth, they announced recently on the news here that the annual number of deaths in car accidents in Minnesota has dropped to its lowest level since the 1940s. Considering how many more cars are on the road now that's quite a statistic. I'm sure there are many factors but car safety features is certainly one of them.

But they "Predicted" they would save more and they didn't live up to that prediction. Must make them worthless right?

Well, I don't know who "They" are, or what they predicted.

All the safety features in the world won't make a difference if people don't take advantage of them. It seems like most of the car accident deaths I hear about on the news these days involve people who weren't using safety belts.

I'll admit that I'm just feeling sour grapes about the increased complexity of electronic controls in cars.....

MrJoshua wrote: I don't think people drive beyond their abilities because they don't think they will get hurt, I think they drive beyond them because it doesn't feel like you are beyond them.

Agreed. Part of the problem is modern vehicles don't help most drivers learn where those limits are until its too late.