Looks like someone who had been watching those "Kia theft made easy" videos paid my neighborhood a visit.
Best guess is they tried a dent puller on the lock, but the good news is they got no further, ending up being unable to open the lock. Now the car unlocks with the remote but not the key.
The insurance question: I decided to replace the lock myself and not file a claim, but I did make a police report. Is the police report likely to affect my insurance rates?