The End Is Nigh

Japanese youth are losing interest in cars....

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081230/as_japan_demotorization.html

Just means they will HAVE to release the hot cars on this side of the pond ;)

After reading that story, I'm not convinced. Sure, one Tokyo resident hippie folk music player doesn't want a car or know anything about cars, but that's hardly a trend. You can go to New York, Chicago, or San Francisco, and find equivalent youths here, too. That doesn't mean that the country's youths don't want cars, it means that you don't have to look very hard to find a group of people who aren't interested in cars. Surprise, surprise. I'm not interested in "organic folk music," but that doesn't mean people won't line up to hear what's-his-name, it just means I won't be in the line.

Japan's biggest car problem is that in Tokyo particularly it is very expensive to own a car, and, because of congestion, a car is not as useful a form of transportation as their very public transit. The same is arguably true for NY city.

In either case, this doesn't mean people don't want cars, it's just that people only want them as toys. Many people don't need them, ergo, if they're not interested in them as toys they won't have them. That does nothing to effect the market for people who either need cars (the largest part of the market) or the people who want cars (a small, but vocal part of the market).

I'll believe the gloom and doom when I see some actual statistical data that has been properly analyzed. Saying people buy fewer cars when they have less money does not reflect a cultural shift, but an economic one.