The Supra-Index: economic recessions as predicted by launches of Japanese sports cars

I was reading an article in some other inferior automotive magazine this morning claiming a tongue-in-cheek link between launches of new Japanese sports cars and economic recessions. The underlying mechanisms are the cyclical nature of the economy and the conservative business strategy shared by many Japanese automakers. By the time the economy has been strong for enough time for a Japanese automaker to develop a new sports car, we are already due for a new recession. 

I thought about this some more and put together a list. Feel free to suggest additions or corrections!

Recession of 1969–70

• 1969 Datsun 240Z
• 1970 Nissan GT-R
• 1970 Toyota Celica

1973-1975 Recession

• 1973 Nissan GT-R 2nd gen
• 1974 Datsun 260Z
• 1975 Datsun 280Z

1980 recession

• 1977 Toyota Celica MkII
• 1978 Mazda RX-7
• 1978 Nissan 280ZX
• 1978 Toyota Celica-Supra

1981–1982 recession

• 1981 Toyota Celica MkIII
• 1981 Toyota Supra MkII

Early 1990s recession - this is where it gets interesting

• 1989 Mazda Miata
• 1989 Mitsubishi Eclipse
• 1989 Nissan Skyline GT-R R32
• 1989 Toyota Celica MkV
• 1989 Toyota MR-2 2nd gen
• 1990 Acura NSX
• 1990 Mitsubishi 3000GT
• 1990 Nissan 300ZX Z32
• 1991 Lexus SC300
• 1992 Mazda RX-7 FD
• 1992 Mitsubishi Lancer Evo I
• 1993 Toyota Supra MkIV

Early 2000s recession "dot com bubble"

• 1998 Mazda Miata NB
• 1999 Honda S2000
• 1999 Mitsubishi Eclipse 3rd gen
• 1999 Nissan Skyline GT-R R34
• 1999 Toyota Celica Mk7
• 1999 Toyota MR2 Spyder
• 2001 Mitsubishi Lancer Evo 7
• 2002 Acura RSX
• 2002 Mazda RX-8
• 2002 Nissan 350Z

Great Recession of 2008

• 2007 Lexus IS-F
• 2007 Mitsubishi Lancer Evo 10
• 2007 Nissan GT-R
• 2008 Nissan 370Z
• 2010 Lexus LFA

Next recession - 2018???

• 2016 Acura NSX
• 2016 Mazda Miata ND
• 2017 Lexus LC
• 2019 Toyota Supra MkV
• 2020 Mazda RX-9

That is an interesting connection. I don't think it is anything more than coincidence but still interesting. Also I think we're about due for a bit of recession anyway, ~10 year cycle and all that. 

I like it!

I think it is probably just part of a bigger phenomenon, maybe 'luxury goods index' that follows the same pattern. The more people buying luxury goods, the better the economy. We will always have large luxury goods numbers right before a recession.

I see that as more a plot of recessions during the lineage of cool japanese cars.

The celica, Z, GTR, Miata (and so on) names, all survived (and got better!) while our market was subject to peaks and valleys.

If you're going to try to draw that sort of corelation then I wanna see some deaths dammit 

disclaimer: drinking

Hungary Bill said:

I see that as more a plot of recessions during the lineage of cool japanese cars.

 

The celica, Z, GTR, Miata (and so on) names, all survived (and got better!) while our market was subject to peaks and valleys.

 

If you're going to try to draw that sort of corelation then I wanna see some deaths dammit 

Well, if the early 90s recession didn't fully kill the FD, supra mkiv, 3000gt vr4 and the 300zx tt, then the dot com crash certainly finished them off.

Does the fact that the next Supra has been in development for like 10 years explain the record growth over the same period? Maybe the global economy is really just funded by Supra development, and when it's released everything falls apart.

I think if you dig more deeply, you'll find that the list is simply leaving out all of the cars that don't fit the narrative.  For example, it's got the NA, NB, and ND on the list, but the NC came out in 2005, right in the middle of a boom, so they left it off the list.  Same for the AW11.  The RSX makes the list, but none of the Integras do, nor do the Preludes, because they don't fit the timelines.

As for the FD/3000GT/etc, there were a bunch of  reasons why those went away as US imports.  Changing US tastes (more SUVs, fewer sports cars) was one of them, another was that the success of the Japanese economy meant that the value of the yen was going up compared to the dollar.  This meant that prices of Japanese cars here needed to go up, and it pushed the sports cars into a range where the market wasn't willing to pay that much.

As for the question of a recession, we're definitely headed for one.  The economy is cyclical, it's been booming for a while, and that means there's a recession coming.  How soon is anybody's guess.

This isn't even as good as the skyscraper index because it's so vague. Anything from an AW11 to an LFA could qualify. If it were to count only Japanese sports cars above a certain inflation-adjusted value, it would come closer to making sense.

Another recession is indeed coming and it sucks because I haven't recovered from the last one at all! Honestly I'm shocked it hasn't hit yet.

In reply to MadScientistMatt :

Spurious Correlations is an amazing website.

Live by the cheese, die by the stairs:

GameboyRMH said:

Live by the cheese, die by the stairs:

Illuminati confirmed

In reply to MadScientistMatt :

What year did fast and the furious come out? Lol.

2001!  

It's all about Supras after all!

Does that mean we are due for another Celica soon?

The0retical said:

In reply to MadScientistMatt :

Spurious Correlations is an amazing website.

Definitely. It has to be the funniest example of "The data will confess to anything if you torture them enough". I really like when he's managed to find something that isn't just a general upward or downward trend for both, but two sets of data that seem to have moved in sync for no conceivable reason whatsoever.

stanger_missle said:

Does that mean we are due for another Celica soon?

I want Toyota to call this a Celica so badly to troll all the domain squatters and fanbois. Then use the excuse that it's in honor of the best rally cheat of all time just to rub salt in the wound.