02Pilot said:
Given the small size of the explosives, there's a high probability that anyone injured is Hezbollah connected...
12 people have been reported killed, 2 of them children. That's 16% of the deaths. 3000 injuries have been reported; not sure of the breakdown there.
Were those children Hezbollah operatives?
I think the Ukranian's use of $200 drones to kill $10 mill tanks has changed the whole concept of modern warfare........
I also think this pager thing might have been an Israeli plot, but if they can kill the "bad guys" without killing lots of civilians, and get rid of the main command path, why not? I do decry the deaths of the kids, but when Palestinians are targeting schools and hospitals, as well as infrastructure then all bets are off as far as retaliation goes. Still, it's all bad - all of it.
Will Putin go off his nut completely and order nukes to bomb Ukraine and Poland? Or, will someone on his general staff find an open window for him to "accidentally" fall out of like so many of his staff have?
It's a strange new world we live in now......and I wonder where it will all go from here?
Duke said:Were those children Hezbollah operatives?
Depending on the age at which one defines 'children', that is a distinct possibility. Is it more likely that Hezbollah operatives are letting their toddlers play with their brand new 'company issued' pagers, or that Hezbollah is sadly employing minors?
With the total number of reported deaths so far being so small, I don't see how any real conclusions can be drawn from that percentage. The percent of injured would be a much more insightful number.
Duke said:02Pilot said:
Given the small size of the explosives, there's a high probability that anyone injured is Hezbollah connected...12 people have been reported killed, 2 of them children. That's 16% of the deaths. 3000 injuries have been reported; not sure of the breakdown there.
Were those children Hezbollah operatives?
Maybe, maybe not. Children make good couriers - lots of energy, quick, less likely to be looked at with suspicion. Same way women make good suicide bombers (less likely to be searched, bomb vests can be easily disguised as pregnancy).
16% is a rounding error in intel work. If the Israelis managed 84% accuracy in simply identifying Hezbollah members, let alone wounding or killing them, it's one of the most successful operations in human history.
Also it should be noted that Hezbollah members, for most here, would be considered some of the worst possible people you could imagine (well into the WWII Gestopo range, likely worse) and who would likely gladly kill most any of us here. Does it suck that they have children and they become involved (even unintentionally)? Absolutely.
There is also a tendency when we hear "children" to think of a 3 year old girl or the like, not a fully radicalized 17 year old boy. Again, as noted previously, the source of some of this info is Al-Jazeera and likely Hezbollah influenced sources so they are highly motivated to make Israel look as bad as possible.
The British did an operation against a Gestopo HQ in Denmark in 1945 (operation Carthage), It was used for the storage of dossiers and the torture of Danish citizens during interrogations. This was a low altitude (as in, between the buildings low) Mosquito raid. They got the building, but also mistakenly bombed a Danish school, killing 87 school children and 18 adults at the school. I would consider that raid far more tragic obviously. But as noted, such collateral damage is always present in wars (generally not a bad as this one though).
In reply to 02Pilot :
Mistakes do happen, as in that bombing raid.
But my point was that the Israelis neither knew nor cared who was carrying those pagers when they blew up.
But I have been screamed at before for suggesting that Israel is anything but blameless, so I think I will ignore this thread too.
Looks like they are managing the same thing with home solar systems!! Maybe even power transformers (which might be related to the solar systems creating surges etc). As with Duke's concern, I am wondering how targeted these are?
BREAKING: Home solar energy systems explode in Lebanon after Hezbollah's walkie-talkies, pagers blasts
Lebanon's state news agency reports that home solar energy systems have exploded in several areas of Beirut - AP
This is obviously looking like a very invasive hack of a lot of electronic devices. This of course is going to wildly disruptive to Hezbollah. They are recommending not using any electronic devices (!). The Isrealis also called for an evacuation of southern Lebanon the other, so this might be a prelude to an incursion (they have already moved a signifiant amount of units there). Sorry to get more general war related here. I am still unclear on how the Lebanese government is allowing Hezbollah to operate with seemingly impunity in it's country, I could guess, but I don't know. It's clearly a very bad thing for the Lebanese people.
(edit): did a quick lookup. Turns out Hezbollah now controls a good amount of the Lebanese parliament, so they are effectively in control of the country (much to the chagrin of the non-supporters, they are a multi-religous country)
Duke said:But my point was that the Israelis neither knew nor cared who was carrying those pagers when they blew up.
I'd argue that it's too soon to tell, and that the limited evidence available also supports a contrary possibility.
In reply to Duke :
Don't start.
War is hell.
Duke said:But my point was that the Israelis neither knew nor cared who was carrying those pagers when they blew up.
But I have been screamed at before for suggesting that Israel is anything but blameless, so I think I will ignore this thread too.
Nobody is screaming at you. I also haven't seen anybody argue that any state is blameless in any conflict.
The nature of the attack indicates that somebody cared a great deal about who was carrying the pagers. This was just about as far from an indiscriminate terror attack as you can get.
In reply to CrustyRedXpress :
Gonna disagree heartily there.
On a scale of 1-10, with 1 being directly targeted sniper shots, and 10 being carpet bombing a thousand acres to get rid of everyone in there, this feels like a... 2, maybe 2.5
Fairly directed, according to reports very little collateral damage, but still no clue who was carrying them or where they were at the time.
This was about as solid a covert action campaign as you could hope for. It's the stuff of movies.
An agency intercepted physical goods, modified them to weaponize them in a way that minimized collateral damage, and executed a plan to not only take down enemy operatives, but disable their comms, in one fell swoop.
And they did it with faaaaar fewer non-target injuries than conventional warfare would produce.
Do you think Hezbolah is as concerned about children casualties when placing their operations beneath schools or hospitals? What about when they're digging up water pipes to make rockets? How many children are brought directly as assets? The kid gloves that people expect them to be handled with is mind boggling.
In reply to 4cylndrfury :
Who is advocating that they be handled with kid gloves?
This morning the BBC interviewed a hospital official from Lebanon. He made it sound like the vast majority of the injured were young men and that very few women and children were injured so while not perfect they seem to be pretty good at mostlyhitting there target audience.
Planting bombs in enemy combatants' dedicated personal handheld communications devices was a pretty good targeting tactic, but after blowing up solar power systems I'm hoping that's the last of it, because with the devices becoming less personal and combat-related and more ordinary household objects it seems like home appliances might be next...
In reply to Mr_Asa :
This is very much like a modern version of what the U.S. (and I'm sure others) did in past conflicts. When we found an enemy weapons cache, we didn't always destroy it. Sometimes we planted tampered with ammo that would explode and injure/kill the person who tried to use it. Not only did it damage the enemy directly, it made them think twice when sourcing ammo. It's entirely possible that non combatants used the ammo and were killed or injured. These pagers are similar. They didn't sell these at the local mall, they were distributed to the bad guys, and unfortunately there are risks to be being associated with terrorists.
Mr_Asa said:On a scale of 1-10, with 1 being directly targeted sniper shots, and 10 being carpet bombing a thousand acres to get rid of everyone in there...
Those might be the two extremes for targeting a single high-profile individual. But I'd argue that in the context of targeting a large number of low-profile individuals intermixed with a civilian population, 'company issued devices' that should with few exceptions be carried exclusively by the 'employees' themselves is likely more reliable and accurate than even the best sight based human judgment.
In reply to Boost_Crazy :
Indeed it is. The only issue is that since then almost all the countries in the world, including the US, Israel and Lebanon, have signed rules of war specifically prohibiting booby traps, as these can cause civilian deaths simply due to proximity.
"6.12.4.8 Booby-Traps and Other Devices in the Form of Apparently Harmless Portable Objects Specifically Designed to Explode. It is prohibited in all circumstances to use booby-traps or other devices in the form of apparently harmless portable objects that are specifically designed and constructed to contain explosive material. 274 This prohibition relates to booby-traps manufactured to resemble items, such as watches, personal audio players, cameras, toys, and the like", from https://media.defense.gov/2023/Jul/31/2003271432/-1/-1/0/DOD-LAW-OF-WAR-MANUAL-JUNE-2015-UPDATED-JULY%202023.PDF
I am guessing that is the reason that we were so quick to declare that we knew nothing and were not involved in the attack, and why no one in Israel openly admitted involvement.
In reply to Piguin :
Note that there is no mention of any direct communication devices there. Seems like a potentially intentional omission to me.
Mr_Asa said:In reply to 4cylndrfury :
Who is advocating that they be handled with kid gloves?
Bravo...my key points were thoroughly ignored, while focusing on probably the least pertinent line of my post.
Well done.
4cylndrfury said:Mr_Asa said:In reply to 4cylndrfury :
Who is advocating that they be handled with kid gloves?
Bravo...my key points were thoroughly ignored, while focusing on probably the least pertinent line of my post.
Well done.
I didn't answer because I don't care what Hezbolah is concerned with. I've made it clear that everyone involved in this sucks.
So, who is saying we should handle them with kid gloves?
Boost_Crazy said:In reply to Mr_Asa :
This is very much like a modern version of what the U.S. (and I'm sure others) did in past conflicts. When we found an enemy weapons cache, we didn't always destroy it. Sometimes we planted tampered with ammo that would explode and injure/kill the person who tried to use it. Not only did it damage the enemy directly, it made them think twice when sourcing ammo. It's entirely possible that non combatants used the ammo and were killed or injured. These pagers are similar. They didn't sell these at the local mall, they were distributed to the bad guys, and unfortunately there are risks to be being associated with terrorists.
Hell, when the Soviets were in Afghanistan, believe it or not their supply chains were terrible, so the soldiers would often sell ammunition in markets in order to buy food.
They would boil the ammunition first, with the belief that it would render it worthless, because they knew it would find its way pointed back at them at some point.
Not as ruthless as the US leaving highly overpowered ammunition behind in Vietnam, of course. Allegedly some of that is still around, 50+ years later!
I had a whole witty retort put together...but I think dialogue with someone arguing in bad faith is effort poorly spent.
Instead, I'd like to suggest that we all like wheel flares and imma stick to that topic...
In reply to 4cylndrfury :
But the big question is are box flares ok on a jellybean car?
In reply to Piguin :
I don't think these would be considered booby traps. What they are looking out for are indiscriminate devices that will hurt/kill someone when they activate it (step on it, come near it etc) after they are drawn to their apparently non-lethal appearance. Think a random civilian drawn to the device (thus the common appearance requirement) which explodes when it's interacted with. Although these are common devices, they are very much targeted, and are not activated by the target.
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