Weather prediction nonsense

Has anyone else noticed in this modern age of AI and supercomputers, weather prediction has become a joke?

Case in point:  Yesterday I checked the weather for today.  It said a high of 85 and an 80% chance of thunderstorms starting around noon.  This morning I checked and it said 80% chance of thunderstorms starting at 2pm, and then rain all afternoon until 8pm where it tapered off to a 20% chance.

It is now 8pm.  The high was 95 (ten degrees off their prediction) and just now we have a few clouds that look like they might be producing rain somewhere.  I meticulously checked all day because I wanted to watch how the predictions changed.  Every hour the rain got pushed back to later in the day.

I get it.  Predicting weather is a guessing game, but 24 hours ago they said 85 and rain for half the day.  What we got was 95 and sun all day without a single drop of rain.  I feel like the good old fashioned TV Meteorologist in 1980 did a far better job of predicting weather than today's super computers.

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Back in the early '70's both of my sisters worked for the daily newspaper in the town we lived. The weather report was always written by someone who looked out the window and took a guess. 
 

I don't think things have changed too much, regarding the accuracy. 

Agreed.  I've tried Apple Weather, The Weather Channel, Weatherbug, and Dark Sky.  None are worth a crap.  I've been standing in the rain and it said 0% chance of rain.

Tv weatherman: I think it's the only job that you can get wrong every day and still have a job.

Weather forecasting is hard, especially when there are rowdy systems out there. It has always been hard, but I think those systems have become rowdier. IIRC someone did a study a while back where the forecast was "tomorrow will be the same as today" and it was actually pretty accurate from a numbers standpoint.

The history of weather reports is really interesting, it was one of the first uses of "faster than a horse" communication.

I'm starting to think it's to keep us indoors.

Just had a small storm pass through but the prediction last week was for storms galore.

There were none.

Conspiracy theory I know.

In reply to rustybugkiller :

Add economists and soothsayers to the list.  Actually, those are all synonyms aren't they. Ha ha. LOL

You would do better to look at all the maps on this page, https://spaghettimodels.com/, and make up your own mind. 

You can't be wrong any more often than the professionals. 

I like the accuweather app

Funny thing. My cousin is a local weatherman in ID. I had no idea that's what he wanted to do, and was shocked when I learned he was on tv. Haven't seen him in person in a couple years but I've been meaning to harass him about being so wrong all the time. Someday...

Y'all ain't wrong. The computer models have gotten to where they're being overused and often relied on as the only source, especially by weather sites. Some TV forecasters go out of their way to look at raw data but most just read the script. Since my job is as dependent on weather as it gets, I look at the 3 main forecast models, go and get my FAA briefing, then  I go look at the damn data and make my own goldern forecast. 

In reply to Patrick (Forum Supporter) :

I knew a forgot one.  Didn't have much luck with that either.

weather.gov is better than a lot of sites

What gets me is that I know a wee bit about meteorology.  I certainly don't have access to all the data about deltas and microbars and particulate concentrations, but I'm pretty good at looking at the sky.  I see cirrus clouds and low humidity with a wind from the northeast and even I can say, "I'll bet tomorrow will be pretty cloudy and humid with maybe some rain unless the high pressure pushes it south.

My super-remedial, 8th grade elective, half-semester class on meteorology seems to make me more accurate than accuweather or the weather channel.

I wish they would just give up on anything other than tomorrow.  The whole "may get rain this weekend" is bullE36 M3.

M2Pilot said:

weather.gov is better than a lot of sites

Only one I use. 

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

I use my phone and it's remarkably accurate in predicting things a day or two ahead. Beyond that  there may be changes but that's understandable. 

Part of Navy flight training included weather forecasting. Back then we didn't have the equipment or technology.  But still could predict things well enough to fly across country and land safely.  Or fly the ocean and safely return to the carrier.  

I can look at radar maps and see weather approach and using those skills I took my wife out for a cruise on the boat. Returning just in time to tie up before the rains hit. 
 

TV weathermen are obsolete. Radio even further behind. 

This thread seems like a bunch of grumpy old men ranting.  Weather forecasts seem, in general, to be pretty accurate to me.

Here's a random dataset from PA demonstrating how accurate they are:  https://www.minitab.com/en-us/Published-Articles/Weather-Forecasts--Just-How-Reliable-Are-They-/

A quick google didn't show any studies for longer periods of time across the US, but I would be very interested in that data.

rustybugkiller said:

Tv weatherman: I think it's the only job that you can get wrong every day and still have a job.

Parts counter guy?

Wife and I each have a different weather app on our phone.

Each day, the forecasts are different from each other, some days they're completely opposite.

At least you get to make up a cool weatherman name for yourself like "Stormy Showers"

I think their accuracy varies depending on where you live.  The TV forecasters in Minneapolis aren't correct 100% of the time, but in general they tend to be pretty good.

Having said that, I think today they can get too dependent on their computers... years ago, I dated a woman who's dad was a long time TV weatherman (like from the 1950s into the 1980s); he always said it was important to periodically just go outside and look up at the sky.  

With a claimed average of about 360 days with sunshine a year I only watch the weather to see if I need ammunition for hurricanes.

stuart in mn said:

I think their accuracy varies depending on where you live.  The TV forecasters in Minneapolis aren't correct 100% of the time, but in general they tend to be pretty good.

Having said that, I think today they can get too dependent on their computers... years ago, I dated a woman who's dad was a long time TV weatherman (like from the 1950s into the 1980s); he always said it was important to periodically just go outside and look up at the sky.  

Well they are obsolete in that I can check my phone at anytime whereas the TV forecasters are on at only certain times 

plus I get the weather radar picture whenever versus waiting for the forecaster to get to it during his/her segment.  

In reply to Curtis73 (Forum Supporter) :

I think you were looking at the wrong town. I check the weather 9-10 times a day and never saw a lower than 93 forecast. Although I've seen the same app load different forecasts for the same area on different phones. They change it second by second it seems. Our business is highly dependent on the weather and although we look at the 10 day we general don't trust anything more than 2-3 days out. 

I have actually been kicking around the idea of trying to put together a "solution" to the weather prediction thing for a while now.  My plan would be to have a program that pulls from all of the other major weather services, weights the data based on prediction accuracy over the last 36 hours or so, and then spits out a "weighted best guess" at the future with a confidence percentage based on the previous accuracy.  All of the data is out there, it would just be a matter of pulling it all in and applying the right formula.

It would probably still be wrong all the time, though.