SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:In reply to Snowdoggie :
I know you are concerned about your physical health, and those around you.
Please watch out for your mental health.
IMO this is the biggest issue we are going to be dealing with.
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:In reply to Snowdoggie :
I know you are concerned about your physical health, and those around you.
Please watch out for your mental health.
IMO this is the biggest issue we are going to be dealing with.
I posted many pages ago. I went from thinking the precautions were extreme to going to full support of protection and precautions. I was wrong at first but by reading data analysis from many sources I saw the basic truths. My Governor has done a great job and those that went against her guidance caused increase risk to us all. Sad.
I have long had a stance of watching no more than a half hour of news per day. It really helps. Greatly reduces panic in others that started following my way. Read one set of opposing views articles a week.
After ending home schooling my kids, which I loved , while teleworking, I started taking care of the little things around the house. Toilet lever issue, replacement of old exterior light fixture. Keep the mind active.
Start reading or learning. Built up end user SharePoint admin skills. Made a few new dishes.
I have two family members in healthcare policy type positions. One in Ontario and one in the US. Both are so confused why so many Americans equate protection of others to fear or weakness or oppression. Wearing a mask is part of their normal work. The benefits of wearing a mask if you are sick is decades old. To them it is as if someone told a car guy that having a windshield in your car was an unconstitutional form of oppression. They struggle to defend the obvious.
I hope everyone here makes the best decision to protect the fellow American strangers they encounter over the next year. Wear a mask. Keep your windshield. Watch F1! Subscribe to GRM. Have Fun with Family next to you or far!
Snowdoggie said:I am beginning to believe that there is a 50% I will not live to drive the Miata I am building in garage right now, but working in the garage is safer than being out in public.
I have trouble sleeping. I worry about it all the time.
Your odds are far better than 50/50. It's been awhile since I've done a demographic breakdown, so I guess I can do it again. (It's early, feel free to check my math if it doesn't look right.) Hopefully it might give you a bit more peace to see some numbers and consider the perspective that you're seeing/hearing vs the one that you're not.
My state (Indiana) currently has 64,299 confirmed cases and 2733 deaths.
Those age 0-19 have been 9% of confirmed cases (5,787) and 0.1% of deaths (2.5? Let's call it 3). Media viewpoint: That's a 0.05% chance of death IF you're a confirmed case. Optimistic viewpoint: 99.95% survival rate among confirmed cases!
Those age 20-29 have been 18% of confirmed cases (11,574) and 0.3% of deaths (8). Media viewpoint: That's a 0.07% chance of death IF you're a confirmed case. Optimistic viewpoint: 99.93% survival rate among confirmed cases!
Those age 30-39 have been 15.8% of confirmed cases (10,159) and 0.7% of deaths (19). Media viewpoint: That's a 0.18% chance of death IF you're a confirmed case. Optimistic viewpoint: 99.82% survival rate among confirmed cases!
Those age 40-49 have been 16.2% of confirmed cases (10,416) and 1.7% of deaths (46). Media viewpoint: That's a 0.44% chance of death IF you're a confirmed case. Optimistic viewpoint: 99.55% survival rate among confirmed cases!
Those age 50-59 have been 15.1% of confirmed cases (9709) and 5.1% of deaths (139). Media viewpoint: That's a 1.4% chance of death IF you're a confirmed case. Optimistic viewpoint: 98.6% survival rate among confirmed cases!
Those age 60-69 have been 11.4% of confirmed cases (7,330) and 16% of deaths (437). Media viewpoint: That's a 5.97% chance of death IF you're a confirmed case. Optimistic viewpoint: 94% survival rate among confirmed cases!
Those age 70-79 have been 7.2% of confirmed cases (4,630) and 24.5% of deaths (670). Media viewpoint: That's a 14.47% chance of death IF you're a confirmed case. Optimistic viewpoint: 85% survival rate among confirmed cases!
Those age 80+ have been 7.3% of confirmed cases (4,694) and 51.4% of deaths (1404). Media viewpoint: That's a 29.91% chance of death IF you're a confirmed case. Optimistic viewpoint: 70% survival rate among confirmed cases!
So even in the hardest hit and most vulnerable age group, 7 out of 10 beat this virus. That's way better than 50/50!
**That doesn't mean this virus isn't serious. That doesn't mean that you shouldn't do your part and wear a mask when appropriate. That doesn't mean it can't kill you. But it might help to better understand the reality of the situation and calm some nerves.
^One small problem with that: You are listing confirmed cases, not completed cases, correct? A brief look at the dashboard shows ~10K of those cases are in the last 2 weeks. In cases where the virus hasn't completed its course, death is still a possibility.
In reply to ProDarwin :
Correct. That's a fair point. I'm not sure that removing 10k total cases really changes the odds of survival much, which is what I was hoping to convey to anybody that's feeling stressed by the situation.
Also worth pointing out that the largest rise in recent cases has come from the 20-29 year old age range as they're now the largest percentage of the known cases, while a couple of months ago the 50-Something demographic held that honor. So I wouldn't expect any "uncompleted" cases to reflect a serious change in the total deaths or 'odds of the virus killing you'.
It has been 6 days since I was exposed and I think I feel fine, temperature is normal- I'm either asymptomatic or just didn't catch it, it'll be interesting to see what the test results say.
At this point, I'd be a lot more concerned with the long term impacts (heart and lung damage, possibly permanent) than dying.
In reply to STM317 :
If I even make it to 80 I'd call it a "win". to still have a 70% survival rate that's pretty good considering what that body has seen in 80 years.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:At this point, I'd be a lot more concerned with the long term impacts (heart and lung damage, possibly permanent) than dying.
But there's no way to gauge that now, or for a very long time. For whatever it's worth, SARS had some long term respiratory impacts, but they were shown to decline signficantly in the first couple of years after exposure.
Obviously nobody wants that, and it's a different virus (even though it's the closest thing we have to go on at this point). Of course taking personal responsibility for your actions and exposure can only help your odds of avoiding it. But I'm glad that we can be more concerned about long term consequences than short term deaths, which is not what we see and hear a lot of the time.
STM317 said:In reply to ProDarwin :
Correct. That's a fair point. I'm not sure that removing 10k total cases really changes the odds of survival much, which is what I was hoping to convey to anybody that's feeling stressed by the situation.
Also worth pointing out that the largest rise in recent cases has come from the 20-29 year old age range as they're now the largest percentage of the known cases, while a couple of months ago the 50-Something demographic held that honor. So I wouldn't expect any "uncompleted" cases to reflect a serious change in the total deaths or 'odds of the virus killing you'.
Agreed on both counts.
My dad is 84. We had BBQ at a local place yesterday.
Life is short. Live it.
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:At this point, I'd be a lot more concerned with the long term impacts (heart and lung damage, possibly permanent) than dying.
My wife is very worried about this as well. But to me, it is hard for me to logically get there. When we start talking about 'coulds', it's usually just scare tactics. You COULD have long term impacts from falling down the stairs. You could have long term impacts from eating bacon and sausages. You could have long term impacts from any other disease or any other choice you make. I don't see the logic in being scared of one could any more than any other coulds (yes you can perform risk analysis on the probability and the impact of the coulds, and you can rank them like that). In fact, the black swan theory seems to think that if we can envision a risk, we are already taking steps to mitigate it. So in theory we need to be more afraid of the risks we are unaware of than the risks we are aware of.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ said:It has been 6 days since I was exposed and I think I feel fine, temperature is normal- I'm either asymptomatic or just didn't catch it, it'll be interesting to see what the test results say.
I now know of several people that were given negative test results (yay! You don't have it) only to be called back a few days later to be told results were a false negative (sorry, your screwed! Oops, you DO have it!)
Hopefully, my little isolated life will continue to keep me from getting it... I don't get warm fuzzies from that!!!
bobzilla said:SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:In reply to Snowdoggie :
I know you are concerned about your physical health, and those around you.
Please watch out for your mental health.
IMO this is the biggest issue we are going to be dealing with.
I think the biggest issue (at least for me) will be the economic impact. As S.E. AL is on the upswing of cases, it has started a whole 'nother wave of panic buying, and the shelves are emptying again
For those of you residing in the Old Line State, here's some new mask restrictions to be cognizant of:
" Previously, masks were mandated in certain high-traffic public locations, like restaurants, groceries and pharmacies. The new order tightens the rules to include "indoors at any location where members of the public are generally permitted" and outdoor public areas whenever it is not possible to maintain six feet of physical distancing. "
Also:
" The state is strongly advising against any travel to or from states with positivity rates of 10 percent or higher. This currently includes: Florida, Texas, Georgia, Louisiana, Arizona, Alabama, South Carolina, Nebraska and Idaho, and applies to personal, family and business travel. "
In reply to Robbie (Forum Supporter) :
My wife is very worried about this as well. But to me, it is hard for me to logically get there. When we start talking about 'coulds', it's usually just scare tactics. You COULD have long term impacts from falling down the stairs. You could have long term impacts from eating bacon and sausages. You could have long term impacts from any other disease or any other choice you make. I don't see the logic in being scared of one "could" any more than any other "coulds"
I agree completely!
mtn (Forum Supporter) said:At this point, I'd be a lot more concerned with the long term impacts (heart and lung damage, possibly permanent) than dying.
New evidence also showing potential brain damage.
Robbie (Forum Supporter) said:mtn (Forum Supporter) said:At this point, I'd be a lot more concerned with the long term impacts (heart and lung damage, possibly permanent) than dying.
My wife is very worried about this as well. But to me, it is hard for me to logically get there. When we start talking about 'coulds', it's usually just scare tactics. You COULD have long term impacts from falling down the stairs. You could have long term impacts from eating bacon and sausages. You could have long term impacts from any other disease or any other choice you make. I don't see the logic in being scared of one could any more than any other coulds (yes you can perform risk analysis on the probability and the impact of the coulds, and you can rank them like that). In fact, the black swan theory seems to think that if we can envision a risk, we are already taking steps to mitigate it. So in theory we need to be more afraid of the risks we are unaware of than the risks we are aware of.
I generally would agree with you. However, there are a few issues that I take here:
- Article: https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/27/covid19-concerns-about-lasting-heart-damage/
- Quote: "
One study examined the cardiac MRIs of 100 people who had recovered from Covid-19 and compared them to heart images from 100 people who were similar but not infected with the virus. Their average age was 49 and two-thirds of the patients had recovered at home. More than two months later, infected patients were more likely to have troubling cardiac signs than people in the control group: 78 patients showed structural changes to their hearts, 76 had evidence of a biomarker signaling cardiac injury typically found after a heart attack, and 60 had signs of inflammation.
These were relatively young, healthy patients who fell ill in the spring, Valentina Puntmann, who led the MRI study, pointed out in an interview. Many of them had just returned from ski vacations. None of them thought they had anything wrong with their hearts. "
Study referenced: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916
SVreX (Forum Supporter) said:mtn (Forum Supporter) said:At this point, I'd be a lot more concerned with the long term impacts (heart and lung damage, possibly permanent) than dying.
New evidence also showing potential brain damage.
Got links? I'd heard about that at the beginning of this, but not much since. (I'll google it later if you don't have them available).
This would likely be scarier than heart damage. Neuro medicine is not nearly as advanced as cardiac.
In reply to mtn (Forum Supporter) :
I don't have any links, but would be interested if you find any.
03Panther said:¯\_(ツ)_/¯ said:It has been 6 days since I was exposed and I think I feel fine, temperature is normal- I'm either asymptomatic or just didn't catch it, it'll be interesting to see what the test results say.
I now know of several people that were given negative test results (yay! You don't have it) only to be called back a few days later to be told results were a false negative (sorry, your screwed! Oops, you DO have it!)
Hopefully, my little isolated life will continue to keep me from getting it... I don't get warm fuzzies from that!!!
Was this a rapid test followed by a lab test, or was this all from a single test?
German study showing heart damage in covid survivors.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamacardiology/fullarticle/2768916
Just do whatever you feel is right for you, but at the same time don't be selfish and see the world beyond the tip of your nose and realize the damage you can do if you're irresponsible. Also, you may not give a berkeley if you die, but I guarantee there are people out there who do.
In reply to Patrick (Forum Supporter) :
Just do whatever you feel is right for you, but at the same time don't be selfish and see the world beyond the tip of your nose and realize the damage you can do if you're irresponsible. Also, you may not give a berkeley if you die, but I guarantee there are people out there who do.
I very good way to approach this! Also, if someone takes risks and dies, so be it. But not only will someone care - its not just the risk taker getting hurt.
My right to swing my arms, ends at the tip of your nose... and vice-versa.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯ said:03Panther said:¯\_(ツ)_/¯ said:It has been 6 days since I was exposed and I think I feel fine, temperature is normal- I'm either asymptomatic or just didn't catch it, it'll be interesting to see what the test results say.
I now know of several people that were given negative test results (yay! You don't have it) only to be called back a few days later to be told results were a false negative (sorry, your screwed! Oops, you DO have it!)
Hopefully, my little isolated life will continue to keep me from getting it... I don't get warm fuzzies from that!!!
Was this a rapid test followed by a lab test, or was this all from a single test?
I know one was a single test, and I believe swab test. I'll try to find out more.
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