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aircooled
aircooled UltimaDork
7/17/14 12:08 p.m.

Terrorist. Who is saying terrorist? They flew over an ACTIVE WAR ZONE (effectively), not a huge surprise there.

I believe they actually where just outside the edge or about to enter it, either way, bad move.

Realistically, it was probably a very suspiciously juicy target and they should have figured it wasn't a military flight (altitude etc.) but someone may have been looking for a "big score" and thought they would take advantage of someones screw up.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
7/17/14 12:13 p.m.

Yeah I don't see any reason for any kind of terrorist to do this. I'm thinking either it was a military mistake on one side or the other, or it crashed for more mundane reasons.

N Sperlo
N Sperlo MegaDork
7/17/14 12:17 p.m.

It is early enough that people will be screaming "IT WAS SHOT DOWN" with absolutely no knowledge of what happened, so the next 48 hours of coverage on CNN is bound to be exciting.

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
7/17/14 12:29 p.m.
N Sperlo wrote:
xflowgolf wrote: Ukraine has stated they didn't shoot anything and blamed terrorists. It always seems to me that there's at least a reason terrorists blow stuff up...
Rumor I've read is that Russia claimed they shot it down until they realized it was a passenger jet. Things will unravel for someone.

Related:

http://news.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=5418227&cid=47475957

Edit: Reuters backs it up:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/07/17/us-ukraine-crisis-airplane-idUSKBN0FM22N20140717

Duke
Duke UltimaDork
7/17/14 12:34 p.m.

It gets thicker, too. Ukraine claims Russian AF shot down a Ukranian Su-25 fighter/bomber yesterday. Russia says "We did no such thing!" Meanwhile, the rebels claim they shot down TWO Su-25s yesterday.

N Sperlo
N Sperlo MegaDork
7/17/14 12:35 p.m.

rebelgtp
rebelgtp UberDork
7/17/14 12:47 p.m.

Sad thing is first thing I thought about was the Lusitania. 99 years ago and we all know where that one led.

My question is why exactly was a passenger jet flying over a war zone?

Wally
Wally GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
7/17/14 12:53 p.m.

Has anyone seen where it crashed. All I have heard for sure is that Malaysa lost contact with it. With their track record it could be damn near anywhere.

N Sperlo
N Sperlo MegaDork
7/17/14 12:55 p.m.
yamaha
yamaha UltimaDork
7/17/14 1:00 p.m.
Wally wrote: Has anyone seen where it crashed. All I have heard for sure is that Malaysa lost contact with it. With their track record it could be damn near anywhere.

Its down, and it was on fire. Near Donetsk. Nearly 300 people died, so I'm definitely not going to troll this.

rebelgtp wrote: Sad thing is first thing I thought about was the Lusitania. 99 years ago and we all know where that one led.

And even then, we didn't get involved for another 2 years......

rebelgtp
rebelgtp UberDork
7/17/14 1:01 p.m.

One article I read said that bodies were spread for miles and that it was shot down at altitude.

On some of the tinfoil hat sites people are suggesting that the whole thing is a setup and this was actually the flight that disappeared. Dress it up to look like a new flight, load it up with bodies and fly it over a war zone where it is conveniently shot down. I seem to remember the same plot in a movie or something that I watched not long ago but I can't remember what it was.

Dr. Hess
Dr. Hess MegaDork
7/17/14 1:06 p.m.

I see 3 players in that area: Russia, the Ukraine government and the "rebels," or whatever you want to call them. Planes have been going down for the past week or two. Choppers, ground attack "fighter" types, and didn't a transport go down as well? The "rebels" don't have an air force, I don't think. They probably do have anti-aircraft capabilities, though. I doubt the Russians would deliberately blow up a commercial aircraft again, (don't forget KAL007.) I also think the Russians would know what they were shooting at before they dropped the hammer. Mistakes do happen, though, in a war zone. This thing was at 30K ft, according to initial reports. Can a shoulder launched SAM do 30K? Dunno. Would the Ukraine government shoot down an aircraft at 30K ft? Why? They would have to think it was Russian, as the "rebels" don't have anything flying. They would have to know that shooting a Russian aircraft down would bring a world of hurt down on them. The Russians have basically surrounded the place with infantry and armor in the past couple months.

Now, the "rebels," loosely controlled, if they had SAM batteries, someone could have locked on and "hey, watch this" the thing. Or thought it was Ukrainian.

How about a false flag attack? The Ukrainians could have done that, as from the above logic, the "rebels" are the only ones that really had a reason/motive/incompetence level to do it. They are going to get the blame here. "Rebels" getting the blame will only help the Ukrainian side in this, thus the real profit motive is on the Ukrainian side of this puzzle. The list of false flag attacks over the centuries is huge, and all governments use it.

One thing you can be sure of, Washington has the event recorded. They had KAL007 recorded. Now, are they going to play it for us peons?

yamaha
yamaha UltimaDork
7/17/14 1:08 p.m.

Screenshot of story posted prior to realization that it was a airliner.....

wearymicrobe
wearymicrobe SuperDork
7/17/14 1:10 p.m.

Shoulder mounted can go about 7 miles give or take but almost impossible to lock onto something that is at 35K, takeoffs and landings and helicopters sure.

The only thing in the region that the the rebels or Ukraine have that could hit anything like this is a TUK/BUK and that would definitely show up on military radar if it was let loose. If the rebels have that I have no idea how they would know how to target or even boot the darn thing up with help.

N Sperlo
N Sperlo MegaDork
7/17/14 1:11 p.m.
rebelgtp wrote: One article I read said that bodies were spread for miles and that it was shot down at altitude.

From Vice News:

According to Anton Gerashchenko, an advisor to Ukraine's Interior Minister and local reports, the plane was shot down by pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine, though rebels have denied involvement in the crash. There were reportedly no Russian citizens aboard the flight. Gerashchenko said on his Facebook page that the rebels used a Buk anti-aircraft system to shoot down the plane, which was flying 10,000 meters in the air
yamaha
yamaha UltimaDork
7/17/14 1:11 p.m.

And the worrysome thing is that if the rebels have the recorders, and they are taken to russia, the data will be altered to show what they want to show unfortunately......

Apexcarver
Apexcarver PowerDork
7/17/14 1:22 p.m.
rebelgtp wrote: One article I read said that bodies were spread for miles and that it was shot down at altitude. On some of the tinfoil hat sites people are suggesting that the whole thing is a setup and this was actually the flight that disappeared. Dress it up to look like a new flight, load it up with bodies and fly it over a war zone where it is conveniently shot down. I seem to remember the same plot in a movie or something that I watched not long ago but I can't remember what it was.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Scandal_in_Belgravia

Those conspiracy nuts will believe anything.

Seems like theres a lot going on these days and it is concerning that it might blow into worse things what with Israel/Hamas and Ukraine/Russia.

My best guess is that it is probably a situation of a rebel firing on an aircraft not knowing what it was and as soon as they found out they started doing their damnedest to cover up that it was them.

N Sperlo
N Sperlo MegaDork
7/17/14 1:28 p.m.
rebelgtp wrote: On some of the tinfoil hat sites people are suggesting that the whole thing is a setup and this was actually the flight that disappeared.

In that case, Malaysia would be involved too, after their tweet:

Malaysia Airlines has lost contact of MH17 from Amsterdam. The last known position was over Ukrainian airspace. More details to follow.

kazoospec
kazoospec Dork
7/17/14 1:39 p.m.

Here's my admittedly "knee jerk" reaction: 1. Man portable air defenses do not reach to 30,000 feet. I.e. this plane was not brought down by a Stinger or the equivalent Soviet SA. Ergo, 2. this missile (if, in fact it was a missile) was launched from a larger air defense system, which requires a tracking radar, targeting computer, and substantial missile system. Such systems are not operated by "rebels", at least not independently. Is it possible that a "rebel" ultimately gave the shoot/no shoot order, sure. But its safe to say that professional military of some nationality were involved in the set up and operation of this air defense system.

What's more, I suspect U.S. Electronic Intelligence assets are currently monitoring and recording all air defense radar "spikes" in the area, if for no other reason that to increase the data catalog on frequency use and targeting capabilities of the current generation of Russian "stuff". So I suspect the "powers that be" already know who did this.

aircooled
aircooled UltimaDork
7/17/14 1:46 p.m.

Yeah, no way that was an SA-7, they are only good to around 7000 ft or so.

An SA-11 (vehicle mounted, with separate radar vehicle etc.), well, 80,000 ft is possible with some of those. HAS to be some sort of radar guided missile.

Apparently there WERE Americans on board. Maybe 25?

z31maniac
z31maniac UltimaDork
7/17/14 2:12 p.m.
Apexcarver wrote:
rebelgtp wrote: One article I read said that bodies were spread for miles and that it was shot down at altitude. On some of the tinfoil hat sites people are suggesting that the whole thing is a setup and this was actually the flight that disappeared. Dress it up to look like a new flight, load it up with bodies and fly it over a war zone where it is conveniently shot down. I seem to remember the same plot in a movie or something that I watched not long ago but I can't remember what it was.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/A_Scandal_in_Belgravia Those conspiracy nuts will believe anything. Seems like theres a lot going on these days and it is concerning that it might blow into worse things what with Israel/Hamas and Ukraine/Russia. My best guess is that it is probably a situation of a rebel firing on an aircraft not knowing what it was and as soon as they found out they started doing their damnedest to cover up that it was them.

Don't forget about Syria/ISIS/Iraq

GameboyRMH
GameboyRMH GRM+ Memberand MegaDork
7/17/14 2:22 p.m.

Here's an expert who thinks the rebels wouldn't have had the training to operate the Buk/SA-11 system:

http://www.cnn.com/2014/07/17/world/europe/malaysia-airlines-crash-missile/index.html

yamaha
yamaha UltimaDork
7/17/14 2:48 p.m.

In reply to GameboyRMH:

Several of those rebels aren't even Ukrainian......a bunch are actually russian. They used an SA-11 just a few days ago to down a Ukrainian transport plane......just like they started to claim again today until it was discovered to be an airliner. They have SA-11's, and they obviously can use them. Its a piece of 70's Soviet tech that can probably be operated by hitting it with a hammer or pouring vodka on the controls.

kazoospec
kazoospec Dork
7/17/14 3:16 p.m.
yamaha wrote: In reply to GameboyRMH: Several of those rebels aren't even Ukrainian......a bunch are actually russian. They used an SA-11 just a few days ago to down a Ukrainian transport plane......just like they started to claim again today until it was discovered to be an airliner. They have SA-11's, and they obviously can use them. Its a piece of 70's Soviet tech that can probably be operated by hitting it with a hammer or pouring vodka on the controls.

Going to have to disagree with you here. Historically, the Russians have always dispatched teams of "advisers" to operate their SAM systems when it comes time to actually use them, even when they are in the hands of "professional" armies. (North Vietnam, Syria, Jordan, Egypt, etc., etc.) and this was in the days when the systems were supposedly even more "simple" (SA-2, SA-6, etc.) than the current generation.

Dr. Hess
Dr. Hess MegaDork
7/17/14 3:31 p.m.

kazoospec, I have always suspected that was why our pilots were given specific orders to not shoot up NVA SAM sites until they went operational, under penalty of Court Martial. The Russians were building them and we wouldn't want to off any Ruskies by accident.

There's also some rumors flying around on RT that Putin's plane was in the area and this one might have been mistaken for Putin's. The BS is getting deep already, and the White House is on Lock Down, and the Israelis have started the ground invasion. Busy day.

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