Worried about the Classic Car market.

I was discussing with a friend the other day about antique and classic cars and where they are going to be in another 50 years.

I used to work at my uncles shop and his specialty was Miller Indy Cars. The guy who was his main customer had 5 of them. When he passed away, they went to other Miller enthusiasts. (The one that got sold that was virtually my uncle's child because he restored it, was a 1931 Miller V-16 seen here)

I had been thinking then, who is going to want this in 20 or 30 years when the old timers who own these cars die off? Is there going to be a market for pre-war cars at all? How about all the perfectly restored non-mainstream cars like the 50's and 60's full size Buick-Olds-Pontiacs (these are just examples), that people put their money into to be factory correct. It seems like all people want is muscle cars anymore.

I don't know, what do you think?

as a twenty something, I can tell you that I have very little interest in pre-war cars.

(Though, I wouldn't kick an Alfa 8C, Morgan SuperSports 3-wheeler, or a Blower Bentley out of bed for dropping crumbs.)

They will probably be in museums and hidden away in private collections, just as old paintings and other antique marvels are.

Early pre-war cars probably just don't seem "cool" to most. They're fascinating, but their rickity tweeting just doesn't attract attention like an unmuffled muscle car does.

In reply to Platinum90:

I used to think that way when I was your age. However, I found myself becoming far more appreciative of things (and people) who preceded me by many years. Hopefully, you and others, will follow suit.

As far as the classic/vintage car market, I doubt it will disappear as long as there are enthusiasts. The last time a 1931 Miller V-16 was made was - 1931. It's not like there are more out there now, is it?

The perceived market value will have its' up and down cycles, but there there will always be demand.

SyntheticBlinkerFluid wrote: I was discussing with a friend the other day about antique and classic cars and where they are going to be in another 50 years. I used to work at my uncles shop and his specialty was Miller Indy Cars. The guy who was his main customer had 5 of them. When he passed away, they went to other Miller enthusiasts. (The one that got sold that was virtually my uncle's child because he restored it, was a 1931 Miller V-16 seen here)

Sorry, dude..gotta hotlink the hotness.

SyntheticBlinkerFluid wrote: I had been thinking then, who is going to want this in 20 or 30 years when the old timers who own these cars die off? Is there going to be a market for pre-war cars at all? How about all the perfectly restored non-mainstream cars like the 50's and 60's full size Buick-Olds-Pontiacs (these are just examples), that people put their money into to be factory correct. It seems like all people want is muscle cars anymore. I don't know, what do you think?

I really don't know. There are some pre-war cars I'd definitely consider..but most of them would be like that Miller-old race cars. I think many of the cars that rare will continue to hold value, even if they do end up in museums. OTOH, I can't think of many street cars I'd like to have from that era. Whenever I see something like a Ford Model T, I think it's seriously cool-but I've never had a burning desire to own one. And in either case, it might be irrelevant-since prices are so high for cars that old in the first place. The ones I actually want (old Indy/Le Mans racecars like the Millers/Bentleys/Alfas/Bugattis) are already out of my league, and I can't see prices on those declining anytime soon.

As far as 50s-60s cars, you may be right as well. Although I have no interest in American cars from that period, I'm old enough to remember the imports from that time period, and would love to have something simple like a Triumph Herald Estate (station wagon), but I really don't think anyone will care about them once everybody my age is dead.

Maybe somebody on the staff can ping Andy Reid about this? I'd love to hear what he thinks about it.

There will always be a market for the good, rare ones, providing we are not all fighting over the last non- radioactive can of beans from the nuked Safeway just outside the bunker. The less rare ones will be rodded, or trade for fewer and fewer dollars. The next group to go down will be 50's cars, then, 60's and so on.

I base this on the Bob Costas theory. If you got your first piece in the back seat of a Model A, you will have fond memories of the car, and will pay a premium dollar until such time as you no longer have any interest in such things.

friedgreencorrado wrote: Sorry, dude..gotta hotlink the hotness.

Oh sweet mercy. I now have a new desktop background.

Sure, the old guys will die off eventually. But as long as petrol heads exist, so will demand for interesting cars, vintage or otherwise. Of all the 'classic' motorsport events I've attended (admittedly, only a few), there's always been a handful of "Gen-Y" enthusiasts mixing it with the old folks.

Eg: Photo taken at a hill-climb couple of years back, this Austin-7 racer was in his 20s.

Specialty collectors of anything, from old cars to paintings to stamps, have always been a very small niche. These things will never apeal to the masses.

But every day a few are born who will look at some smelly archaiac thing with wire wheels and wooden blocks for brakes and go "ooh".

At the ripe old age of 40 I'm the "young kid" in our local studebaker club. Next youngest is our president who is in his late 50s. Most of these guys are in their 70s and 80s and when they go their knowledge and experience goes with them. I try to take the opportunity to learn what I can from them and in turn they are thrilled to see new generations take an interest in "their" cars. So if you are younger and do have an interest in the older makes then I strongly suggest finding the local clubs and getting involved. Alot of these guys aren't internet savvy so we'll never get to chat with them in places like this, but a wealth of knowledge leaves us a bit more every day and its a shame.

The interest, and therefor value, of old cars is a bell curve that peaks at ~30-40 years old. People end up with disposable income when they are 50-60 and want the car they couldn't have when they were 20. Always has, always will be that way. As these folks pass on, the bell curve moves on too, and there are few people left who enjoy the iron that predates them. Witness Model A and Model T's. They had their heyday when they were worth dumb money (not as dumb as the musclecars I will grant you) but now they are just not that desired. The real shame is that the ones that have not yet been restored probably won't be because a restoration costs more than they are worth. The old guy across the street was one of the few Model A guys left, and when he had a stroke and could no longer play, he sold all of his nicely restored ones for $8-$12K IIRC.

Desires shift with age. There will always be some market for them, but the next wave will hit and big money will be with them. I have a friend that is restoring two of the old Nissan GTP cars. A few years ago they were just a used up old race car, now they're collectible in their own right. 20 years from now, someone might be paying big bucks for a Daytona Prototype or ALMS Audi, etc.

I'd be curious if your answers would be different if this were posted in our classic cars forum at ClassicMotorsports.net.

We're still working on making these forums work on both sites without confusing the display settings...

The question really is- what's to worry about?

If future gear heads don't appreciate my car when I'm dead- why should I care- I'll be dead.

I'm not all that interested in "forcing" my ideas or hobbies onto someone else- if they like it- awesome, and I'll do my best to help them get info and find things that they can be ethusiastic about.

But if they don't- so be it.

My club faces a "problem" right now- that the people who are doing the work don't want to work anymore. Or at least want to work a lot less. This does impact more than our club, since we get a lot of people to our events.

The reality is, though, if nobody steps up, the events end. And forcing people to step in will make them worse than just ending.

Thing start, things end- that's the way life happens.

it would be a shame to see an 8C 2900 scrapped for it's metal, for sure. But if in 150 years from now, nobody cares about it, and the metal value is more than the personal value- well, I'm not around to stop it.

They are cars, and a means of entertainment.

And I'm very thankful that boards like this exist so that I can share my entertainment with so many other passionate people, that's for sure.

But to put much more "value" on them than than that increases the genuine importance of them vs. other things which are actually priceless.

Just sayin.

Interest in pre-war race cars greatly depends on whether or not one has attended a vintage race. In my case: prior to attending a Watkins Glen Vintage Festival, I thought they were interesting novelties... afterwards, they are some of the coolest cars ever built and I'd take one over just about any musclecar.

I'm pretty sure that at 49, I'm youngest in our British car club. We are concerned about that.

Cars like those Millers will always be held in high regard, both because of their rarity as well as their construction - they're like fine jewelry.

Other cars have faded from popularity as they got older, for instance the Model T Ford. When I was a kid in the 1960s it wasn't uncommon to see older guys who owned Model Ts; it was the car they learned how to drive in and/or was the first car they owned, so when they got older they decided they'd like to have another one for fun. However, most those guys have passed on, and other than the occasional hot rodded T you hardly see them at all any more.

You guys seem to be thinking of pre-war cars as the brass era cars.

There are plenty of pre-war cars that are the same as post-war designs.

My 1948 Chevy is the same car as a 1941 Chevy, there was no time to develop a new model so they just hung more chrome on the pre-war design.

What about a 1940 Ford?

1932 Ford?

There's plenty of interest in pre-war cars by the younger crowd (I'm 32 BTW).

Hell, you can build a '32 Ford from scratch using no original parts thanks to catalogs.

Shawn

Dr. Hess wrote: I'm pretty sure that at 49, I'm youngest in our British car club. We are concerned about that.

I'm pretty sure 49 would make you the youngest person in our local Miata club as well. That particular car doesn't seem to be dying out quite yet.

Maybe it's not that the cars aren't appealing to younger owners, but the club. None of my British stuff has been to a club meeting since Basil went to the Ottawa Valley Land Rover Birthday Party in 2000. At the time, I was 30 and I was not the youngest owner there.

SyntheticBlinkerFluid wrote: How about all the perfectly restored non-mainstream cars like the 50's and 60's full size Buick-Olds-Pontiacs (these are just examples), that people put their money into to be factory correct. It seems like all people want is muscle cars anymore.

With the price of muscle cars going through the roof, I've seen a lot of people taking the less popular cars from that era (and even the '70s malaise era cars) and hopping them up instead, because it's what they can afford. Sometimes this leads to some rather weird what-if cars, such as one guy who took a '72 Coronet sedan and made it into what a Super Bee might have looked like if it had stayed with the Coronet and been an option with four doors.

Wouldn't mind building a T-bucket type hot rod myself, either; these sometimes seem to be "what a hot rod is" in my mind. Except my mind doesn't say very much about being nostalgic for the original ladder frame and solid axles; mine would be more likely to have IFS and a space frame, making it more of a T-bucket Locost.

Trans_Maro wrote: Hell, you can build a '32 Ford from scratch using no original parts thanks to catalogs.

That's not due to interest in '32 Fords, though. That's due to interest in 50's and 60's hot rods built out of cheap '32 Fords.

I think the hobby will be fine, it will just evolve. Soon show fields that are now filled with MGBs and TR-6s will be filled with Civic Si, Miatas and AE86 Corollas. Sure there will still be folks that collect the European stuff, but as time marches on, collectors will want (Like Dave said) what they wanted when they were in high school.

Then there are strange cases like me. When I was younger it was all about speed. I had interest, but no desire for a Model T, 49 Caddilac Fleetline, or 65 Rivera. As I get older, I realize that very fast street cars are kind of silly, (wanna go fast? take it to the track) and I'm more drawn to aesthetics and the history of the machines.

I mean the Model T introduced mass production to the world, sold over a million copies and changed life in the U.S. forever. AND you can still use it today! How is that not cool? Although they are inexpensive now, I don't see them ever becoming worthless. It was too important of a machine. The less influential cars though may pass by the wayside.

The older I get, the more I'm drawn to non-disposable things.

I am 21. And my dream cars if I had unlimited money are mostly pre-war cars; the Bentley 4 1/2 liter, Bugatti Type 57S Atalante and MG R-Type Midget.

I used to work at hot rod shop and I saw quite a few 20-ish year olds stopping in or working there to drool over the hardware, including the pre-war cars. Hot rodded, slightly-modded, factory-style resto, original survivor, Model As, front-engined dragsters from the 60s, 1930s Chryslers, and plenty of bone stock 50s iron. A few muscle and pony cars from as late as the 60s. Funny thing was, they didn't really care for the 60s stuff, they said it was too late.

There is already pressure at Pebble Beach to recognize post war cars more than they have been in the past.

I don't think that pre-war car prices will plummet though. Even as interest in them decreases in general, the overall market is likely to grow even faster (S.E. Asia and India soon, followed by China and S. America, and eventually Africa).