Wuhan

There are a few important key ingredients to create a global pandemic (based on my playing of outbreak type games while confined, I have no scientific education in the matter)

1) the ability to spread from human to human

2) the ability to spread before a patient is displaying symptoms

3) being airborne

4) the outbreak starting in a densely populated area

5) the ability to inflict previously healthy people

6) the ability to quickly evolve and become resistant to treatments

7) the ability to survive on dry surfaces

Wuhan is at level 5. The government in China is intelligent enough to realize this and is thrash constructing 2 additional hospitals at this point, but due to factors 2) and 3) if even a small handful of unknowingly infected patients break containment, things well escalate VERY quickly by mid-week. The fact that the UK isn't able to locate 230 persons who may have been exposed to screen is the tip of the iceberg, with regards to both potential spread of the virus and in panic. The ethical treatment of patients, those who aren't patients who live in the effected area, will become a serious human rights issue and concern. 

Science needs to come up with a treatment soon, or I honestly expect 100,000 patients by Wednesday. Other previous outbreaks over the past few decades haven't had the capabilities to spread, or the initial density at the point of origin. Buckle up. 

Eh, it’s not as deadly as SARS was (at least not as of this writing), and China is reacting a lot more quickly than they did with SARS.  Any outbreak that kills is bad, but I’m not particularly worried.  

The one thing that's surprising to me is how quickly it spread to other countries.  America in particular. There is usually a fairly good buffer from when it is announced/in the news to when we have a case, and right now there are two with a possible third (last I checked at least)

In reply to Mr_Asa :

Wuhan being a major travel hub is a large part and reason for that. In addition to the ability for it to be transmitted prior to symptoms being shown. 

eastsideTim said:

Eh, it’s not as deadly as SARS was (at least not as of this writing), and China is reacting a lot more quickly than they did with SARS.  Any outbreak that kills is bad, but I’m not particularly worried.  

SARS killed 775 people. The flu kills ten times that in the US alone in one year.

The media, like usual,  is overacting and scaring people unnecessarily 

Wuhan isn't an animated Disney movie?   Huh...

It is really interesting how we react to stories like this. On one hand, travel to Wuhan is now considered just as unadvisable as travel to Iran or North Korea by the US gov. 

On the other hand, there are Tens of thousands of deaths attributed to influenza each year in the US.

Wuhan has a population pretty close to the state of Ohio. They've had 41 deaths from corona virus by most recent count. There have been 170 deaths in Cleveland alone from pneumonia in the last few months. Is that an epidemic too? Where are the travel advisories?

From another discussion forum:

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A map of all the cases worldwide.

In reply to STM317 :

The difference is probably the death rate.  From what I’ve been able to find, SARS killed about 10% of infected, the current coronavirus(which is kind of a generic term, IIRC SARS and MERS were also coronaviruses) appears to have a rate around 4%.  A “normal” flu doesn’t kill anywhere near that many infected.  If it did, we’d all probably take preventative measures much more seriously, and a lot fewer people would get the flu in the first place.

I was gonna post this in the memes thread, but I'll just leave it here.

There are a few more ingredients that might be on your list:

 - Eating wild animals not normally eaten by humans 

 - Initially developing in or near a major transportation hub.

Oh, and of course one HUGE mitigating factor:

- If it starts in Madagascar!  :)   (If you have ever played those outbreak type games)

In reply to eastsideTim :

You might have a valid point, but I guess it depends on details that we don't really know now.

There are currently 41 deaths and over 1370 confirmed cases from this Coronavirus. That's a death rate of 2.9%.

My previous link to influenza data from the CDC pretty consistently works out to 0.2-0.4% of those seeking medical visits dying from influenza. But that percentage jumps significantly if we only look at deaths per hospitalization, where it tends to be in the 7-12% range.

So does the "over 1370" known cases of Coronavirus thus far represent people that have only sought medical attention, or people that have been hospitalized?

In reply to aircooled :

I lumped transportation hub in with densely populated, as it plays (and has played) a large role within the initial 96 hours. 

Fatality rate isn't a huge concern initially. Actually having a lower fatality rates assist the virus in spreading and a living hose who isn't displaying symptoms will spread the outbreak of disease, whereas a corpse is far less likely to. 

STM317 said:

So does the "over 1370" known cases of Coronavirus thus far represent people that have only sought medical attention, or people that have been hospitalized?

That may be somewhat irrelevant during this outbreak, as I suspect anyone who seeks medical attention for the flu, and tests positive for this coronavirus is going to get hospitalized regardless of the severity of the case, just to quarantine them.

you have 300 people on each Jumbo Jet that leaves Wuhan , One person has the virus , 

There is a stopover in Tokyo and those 300 people  go on 20 other airplanes , 

and on and on,,,,,,,,

You can see how the numbers ramp up if the Virus can be caught  by just being in a plane with an infected person.......

NOTE:  I do not think it will get that bad , but you can make numbers scare anyone !

In reply to eastsideTim :

Which will lead some people who suspect that they may have the virus, but don't trust the powers that be, to not seek medical attention in order to avoid quarantine. Also see people who believe that they have the flu, but not the coronavirus, with zero medical reason to suggest they have one versus the other. Panic not reason will help spread the virus. 

Wuhan Wuhan

Gotchu all in check!

Oh! It's Wuhan,

I thought it was Wutang

In reply to AngryCorvair :

I was beaten to the punch.  
 

News has already reached my mother, so at 3:30 this morning she warned me to watch out for this in addition to the other things I'm supposed to be watching out for like weather, terrorists, muggers, and bad drivers. 

In reply to bentwrench :

I know, I keep thinking wuhan clan

It is hard to underestimate the amount of hype the media will put on such things, it really has been going on for a long time.  I am still waiting for the absolute mayhem that is going to result from the invasion of killer bees.... still waiting....

Chinas rather extreme response can be understood, after all they are a prime breeding  ground and their government allows them to easily implement rather very harsh restrictions.  As their population and transportation networks continue to expand, it will only get worse (of course, I suspect their counter measures will get more extreme).

Wuhan is for the children. 

bigdaddylee82 said:

Put me in this camp. But I've always felt there are to too many humans.

STM317 said:

It is really interesting how we react to stories like this. On one hand, travel to Wuhan is now considered just as unadvisable as travel to Iran or North Korea by the US gov. 

On the other hand, there are Tens of thousands of deaths attributed to influenza each year in the US.

Wuhan has a population pretty close to the state of Ohio. They've had 41 deaths from corona virus by most recent count. There have been 170 deaths in Cleveland alone from pneumonia in the last few months. Is that an epidemic too? Where are the travel advisories?

Other than media fear-mongering, I think the concern with this is that it's a new virus and it's still unknown how it might change.