In reply to Mr_Asa :
Maybe, but viruses- especially Influenza A- change rapidly all the time and not for the virus's benefit. We still get predicitons wrong on the prevalent strains because of this.
Also, the number of people who die worldwide from "regular" flu may be as high as 650,000 per the WHO, and the best defense against it is the yearly flu shot. I'm not too concerned about Coronavirus; I'm far more concerned about China's behavior about coronavirus.
914Driver said:Wuhan isn't an animated Disney movie? Huh...
Nope, but it did shut down Disney Shanghai
Several hundred suspected, but not yet confirmed cases between Shanghai and Hong Kong in the past few hours. Containment will possibly no longer be on the table within the next 48 hours.
BRUH
one of the problems in China is the live food markets with all kinds of weird things we in the west would never buy ,
There also is a African swine flu that has hit China hard......
In reply to californiamilleghia :
Though it's cultural different, it's only marginally worse then Karen taking her toy Pomeranian to the gentrified farmer's market and it making waste in close proximity to the guy selling locally raised lamb.
You can't have live animals in proximity to raw meat.
In reply to GIRTHQUAKE :
Coincidence? Maybe, maybe not.
That level 4 lab is 20 miles from the "meat market" in question.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/did-china-steal-coronavirus-canada-and-weaponize-it
How far from reality are the "official" numbers China releases when their response is as draconian as we've seen so far?
If they say that 2,000 are infected and a couple hundred dead, is the real number 50,000 infected and 5,000 dead?
(Still a drop in the bucket compared to Chinas population.)
Remember, only a few people where killed at Tienanmen square.... mostly trip and fall accidents I hear...
Remember, whenever flu season is upon us, we normally implement military quarantines around multiple cities affecting 20 million+ people.
In reply to KyAllroad (Jeremy) :
In relation to that, I read an editorial by a doctor who specializes in germ transmission and such things, he pointed out that current reported numbers of infected vs dead put the mortality rate at around 3% which is close to the 1918 Flu Epidemic.
Depending on if those numbers are correct
It looks like Cleveland in Wuhan. (The one time I was in Cleveland I was shocked by how empty it was after 4 pm.)
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the fear here that it is taking down otherwise healthy people? I'm not sure that the comparisons to influenza are the best. Typically, influenza makes healthy people sick but won't kill them - the reason that the vaccine is pushed so hard is that it is (a) readily available, (b) cheap/free for many if not most people, and (c) you get it not to protect yourself, but to protect those that cannot - infants and the elderly, along with other subsets of the population - the people that can't get the vaccine are the ones who will end up being killed by influenza (the 1918 epidemic was a different story, it killed healthy people with strong immune systems in higher numbers than it did older/weaker people - likely because of a cytokine storm).
So am I wrong about that with the Cornoavirus that it attacks and kills otherwise young and reasonably healthy people?
As for the Chinese and media response... well, I think the media is responding to China's actions. I don't know that they're fear mongering very much. But the Chinese response sounds to me like they are doing everything to nip it in the bud, optics/politics/human rights be damned. From a "greater global good" and global health perspective, that is excellent... assuming that it isn't in an attempt to make a biological weapon (not a statement one way or another, just saying we have very little insight into what the Chinese gov't is doing and that is a thing that could theoretically be done, and it would suck). But obviously from a human rights/freedom perspective, it is pretty E36 M3ty.
They are closing the wild animal meat markets , Hopefully forever as this seems to cause problems every few years ,
I give China credit for closing things down , its going to cost them a lot of money .
I would just not want to be stuck in Wuhan wondering what is going to happen.
As the effort to combat this ramps up and more people get involved, everybody will be Kung-Flu fighting, because it spreads as fast as lightning. Although the future is a little bit frightening, I'm hoping that it's not as bad as the media is writing.
I guess I think it is always good to dig out any useful data from any outbreak. When there is a significantly strong disease that has a crazy % of death then at least we have some data to try and combat spread.
I think it would be naive to think that Manhattan would not be put under Federal State of Emergency if a significant outbreak occurred and escape from the region would be restricted. If significant breaches occurred martial law and lethal force would eventually be used to ensure the rest of the nation is not exposed. The USA would hopefully mobilize efficiently and quickly with appropriate medical resources to wait out the course of the disease.
Whether the reaction is over or under what is needed there will be complaints. Wuhan will be the same. Regardless of their performance there will be few positive reports about it.
Mr_Asa said:In reply to KyAllroad (Jeremy) :
In relation to that, I read an editorial by a doctor who specializes in germ transmission and such things, he pointed out that current reported numbers of infected vs dead put the mortality rate at around 3% which is close to the 1918 Flu Epidemic.
Depending on if those numbers are correct
They are not. The 1918 Spanish Flu had a mortality rate of ~20%. Someone posted earlier that this one has a lower mortality rate of most yearly flus already.
According to history.com, linked to in
https://www.zerohedge.com/health/two-nasty-traits-coronavirus-typically-not-seen-together
Spanish Flu hit 0.5 Billion world wide, killed 20-50 Million, so 4-10%. 675K Americans.
And, as an interesting side note, for a while virtually all of the Parkinson's Disease patients were survivors of the 1918 Spanish Flu. As they died out, researchers were wondering if Parkinson's Disease was going to go away also.
Wasn’t bacterial pneumonia a major factor in the deaths in the Spanish Flu outbreak? Are we able to handle that better now than we were then or not?
eastsideTim said:Wasn’t bacterial pneumonia a major factor in the deaths in the Spanish Flu outbreak? Are we able to handle that better now than we were then or not?
10 years after the Spanish Flu, Sir Alexander Fleming discovered/invented Penicillin - the worlds first antibiotic. So yes, we're much more able to handle it now, not to mention the general improvement in hygiene and other risk factors.
mtn said:Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't the fear here that it is taking down otherwise healthy people? I'm not sure that the comparisons to influenza are the best.
The 1918 Flu took down otherwise healthy people in large numbers. They think it caused cytokine storms which is a very cool name but not a good thing to experience. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytokine_release_syndrome Note the article says they have similar suspicions about SARS so it might be related to this one too.
eastsideTim said:Wasn’t bacterial pneumonia a major factor in the deaths in the Spanish Flu outbreak? Are we able to handle that better now than we were then or not?
What really killed people with the spanish flu was something called a "Cytokine Storm", basically your body going apeE36 M3 and producing so many white blood cells in your lungs they inflame beyond their ability to exchange oxygen and becoming succeptable to pneumonia.
The era the Spanish Flu occured was when amputation was still commonly practiced and we had no antibiotics or antiviral agents.
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