Indy-Guy said:Perhaps a ray of hope. China is reporting a decline in reports of new cases.
Virus today, hold my beer:
i suspect the decline in new cases was due to the lack of available testing kits to keep up with those to potentially diagnose.
Indy-Guy said:Perhaps a ray of hope. China is reporting a decline in reports of new cases.
Virus today, hold my beer:
i suspect the decline in new cases was due to the lack of available testing kits to keep up with those to potentially diagnose.
In reply to Dr. Hess :
Have you gotten any new updates from the CDC? Was yesterday's optimism too premature?
I read a headline stating they're (the CDC) is preparing for the corona virus to "take a foothold in the US"
No, I haven't got any more CDC or Arkansas Health Department notices. Note that Trump announced that it would burn itself out in April. I'm sure that is based on CDC researchers and seems pretty reasonable.
Do any of you that know stuff have suggestions on where I can read/watch a "virus/contagion for dummies" kind of thing? Something that takes me through how a graph of infections vs time, deaths vs time, recovered vs time looks for a flu versus something universally acknowledged as a bad thing would look. Like anthrax or something.
Anthrax is not a virus. Google up "viral epidemiology". Interesting article on medscape (probably need a login to get it) yesterday. Showed the infection spread rate and death rate of some various virii including SARS, HIV, etc. The R0 is the number of other people one infected person infects. HIV was 6. "The Flu" is like 1.5.
https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/924319?nlid=133919_3901&src=wnl_newsalrt_200212_MSCPEDIT
And the fatality rate:
captdownshift said:Indy-Guy said:Perhaps a ray of hope. China is reporting a decline in reports of new cases.
Virus today, hold my beer:
Possible reason for the recent "spike" in reported cases from China, this is a screenshot of an article from CNN. Link to CNN page, several news articles on the page scroll for awhile.
RX Reven' said:crankwalk said:I can confirm viruses are smaller than a grain of sand.
I was wondering, thanks for clearing that up.
Joking aside, the mask provides warmth and humidity…just what a virus needs to stay alive.
I’m not that versed in microbiology but my understanding is that viruses are too primitive to have any self-regulatory capabilities and basically “hold their breath” while in transit from one host cell to another.
Giving them a warm, wet surface to land on seems analogues to air dropping camping supplies to stranded hikers.
Has anybody conducted a valid study of this or is it just a case of giving the masses a sense of security and making a little money selling stuff in the process?
Kinda. Viruses like the warm and wet like bacteria because the liquid environment helps them contact cells to infiltrate inside.
Masks preventing the inhalation of material viruses could be on is completely correct- they stick to dust and water vapor in the air (sneezes) and that's why N95s are effective- otherwise, that material can get into your nose, stuck in the hairs within your nares and is close to your mucus membranes, excatly where most colds want to be.
Viruses aren't really "alive"- they don't "hold their breath" because most are just protien shells surrounding RNA or DNA strands that just kinda "bump" into things they infiltrate. Most viruses don't really even have physical functions or things to upkeep within themselves aside from their gene strands- they're like living landmines that live to take over other cells sorely for reproduction. I think only a handful have any kind of organelle inside them- and some like Hepatitis C are so small the RNA strand has been completely mapped.
It's really creepy how un-like they are from everything else on the planet.
ADH sent another email. Rather a clusterberkeley as far as emailing goes. Somehow the "unsubscribe" or reply went to the entire list of all physicians in Arkansas. I got like 200 emails with "why am I getting all these emails/unsubscribe."
Anyway,
"CDC states that current risk to those in USA is low, as this virus is not currently spreading in the community.
However, it is expected that more cases will occur in the U.S., including the likelihood of some level of
transmission within U.S. communities"
Look for patients with fever, then if they could have been exposed to someone that went to China in the last 2 weeks, that's when you consider a diagnosis of coronavirus.
Dr. Hess said:
Anyway,
"CDC states that current risk to those in USA is low, as this virus is not currently spreading in the community.
However, it is expected that more cases will occur in the U.S., including the likelihood of some level of
transmission within U.S. communities"Look for patients with fever, then if they could have been exposed to someone that went to China in the last 2 weeks, that's when you consider a diagnosis of coronavirus.
Thanks for sharing. Sounds like they're expecting this to last longer than a "seasonal" thing..
I does seem like they are struggling to define exactly what this thing is. I heard they are now uncertain what the quarantine period should be and maybe it should be significantly longer.
I have a coworker coming back from a 4 week long vacation in northern Vietnam next week. I'm debating wearing a hazmat suit for the next 2 weeks.
JesseWolfe said:I have a coworker coming back from a 4 week long vacation in northern Vietnam next week. I'm debating wearing a hazmat suit for the next 2 weeks.
Your HR department should comply with CDC guidelines, if they exist, to evaluate risk and have a plan in place to have that person screened. You should ask your HR rep if they do.
Talked with a Chinese co-worker yesterday. Her parents are in an area outside of Wuhan. The whole area is quarantined. No one is allowed outside their house/apartment except I think it was one day a week to go get groceries, and they needed a pass filled out for that. She didn't have any other information that wasn't straight out of the Chinese government official announcements.
Seems like it would be tough to make accurate predictions, given the likelihood that the Chinese are being less than forth coming. I have read reports that this started early December/late November. They did not lock things down until a month or so later.
What i heard about the "taper in April" thing.
The common cold is seasonal. Worse in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter and slacks off with spring warming.
In the Southern hemisphere it peaks in their winter months.
There is some hope this COVID-19 virus may follow the same pattern.
Interesting read. Yes, Iggy, it's ZH. Find me something that's wrong. Maybe the part where they quote CNN and the NYT?
Toebra said:Seems like it would be tough to make accurate predictions, given the likelihood that the Chinese are being less than forth coming. I have read reports that this started early December/late November. They did not lock things down until a month or so later.
I'm not sure how much of the bad information out of China is intentional, and how much is a case of the Chinese government simply not knowing. How do you go about estimating the number of people who caught this virus, assumed it was a cold or flu, and just stayed at home living on chicken noodle soup until they felt better instead of going to see a doctor?
Dr. Hess said:Find me something that's wrong. Maybe the part where they quote CNN and the NYT?
How about that they didn't quote CNN and NYT...They quoted the personal opinion social media post of what appears to be a freelance photographer who has had photographs used by CNN and NYT at some point in time. So it seems to be the completely unsubstantiated claims of a pandering Senator (who even acknowledges that there is zero evidence to support his claim) and a photographer vs actual experts within this particular field of study:
“There’s absolutely nothing in the genome sequence of this virus that indicates the virus was engineered,” said Richard Ebright, a professor of chemical biology at Rutgers University.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/16/tom-cotton-coronavirus-conspiracy/
Always late to the party, but I have a cousin who lives and teaches in Chengdu, China (It's like a 15 hour drive from Wuhan). I thought I'd share his facebook post from January 31st in case anyone was interested:
"This is to add to a news story that is being covered by the outside world but people are ignoring the human element because it does not yet affect them. This is happening right now to hundreds of millions of people and may soon also happen to you...
How things can change so quickly. A world that we take for granted is connected together by billions of shoe-strings. If a key part comes undone, the whole thing can unwind.
First imagine this: your daily life in China. You wake up, roll over to your phone and immediately check WeChat, Facebook, and Instagram. You quickly check the headlines from the BBC, South China Morning Post, and the New York Times. You send a quick message to your mom and sister on iMessage. Within 2 minutes you’re in the shower, and within 45 minutes you’ve ordered a Didi (Chinese Uber) and you’re on your way to work. You work all day, come home, visit some friends, go to sleep, and do it all again.
To you this is civilization. That was two weeks ago.
Now imagine this: Your job closes for the holidays and then extends your holiday because of a new illness that is spreading from a neighbouring province. Cities begin being quarantined. Planes, trains, and automobiles cannot leave the quarantined cities.
You are told to wear a mask. They are running out of masks. You see a video of people collecting dirty masks from garbage cans and repurposing them to be sold as new.
You’re told don’t travel unless completely necessary. Do not leave your house. Anyone might have it, your pet may be carrying it. Is it safe to go to the supermarket?
Bars, restaurants, and public areas close and the streets are nearly empty. Now you are told there are medical checkpoints at every entrance to a highway. In full medical gear, health workers have you exit your vehicle and you are given a medical check before you enter the city.
Countries begin cutting off people from where you are to enter their countries and territories. There is talk in the White House of banning all flights from your country of origin.
Your wife is with you and her passport is expired. She is also 3 months pregnant. You couldn’t get on that last plane even if you wanted to. You guys are stuck.
There is a moral argument to be made for staying put. Imagine that you hop on a plane and are the one who spreads the disease and are responsible for the death of just one person. But what about your family?"
He made another post about the subject on February 10th, but it's more political in nature so I figured I'd spare y'all his thoughts on the Chinese government 
Driven5 said:Dr. Hess said:Find me something that's wrong. Maybe the part where they quote CNN and the NYT?
How about that they didn't quote CNN and NYT...They quoted the personal opinion social media post of what appears to be a freelance photographer who has had photographs used by CNN and NYT at some point in time. So it seems to be the completely unsubstantiated claims of a pandering Senator (who even acknowledges that there is zero evidence to support his claim) and a photographer vs actual experts within this particular field of study:
“There’s absolutely nothing in the genome sequence of this virus that indicates the virus was engineered,” said Richard Ebright, a professor of chemical biology at Rutgers University.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/02/16/tom-cotton-coronavirus-conspiracy/
This should go in
/r/murderedbywords
In reply to Hungary Bill :
damn dude, your cousin is one brave mofo to post stuff like that from behind the wall. they've executed more for less.
Yeah, when you mentioned he had thoughts on the government I thought: that's the sort of thing that gets you knocks on the door to send you somewhere to "correct" those thoughts.
In reply to AngryCorvair :
They like to keep 'em all in check. There are some people that are protesting near my office everyday across the street from the Chinese Embassy and from their stories I don't know that I'd have the nerve to criticize them if I wasn't a safe distance away.
Dr. Hess said:
Interesting read. Yes, Iggy, it's ZH. Find me something that's wrong. Maybe the part where they quote CNN and the NYT?
that's not even a zerohedge article. It's a reprint from a the summit news which is a tabloid at best. Current top of billing headline is "leftists celebrate ryan newman crash because he supported trump"
come on.. you're better than this.
AngryCorvair said:In reply to Hungary Bill :
damn dude, your cousin is one brave mofo to post stuff like that from behind the wall. they've executed more for less.
Yeeeeeah... i love the dude, but the line between bravery and something else is blurred sometimes
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