$45k for a car that was $129k 10 years ago doesn't seem like an eyebrow raising amount. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 2010 Mustang GT selling for $10k. Seems about right, depreciation wise.
Man, think about that. The owner paid $129k for that car, drove it 4k miles, and sold it for $45k. That's $21/mile in depreciation. OUCH.
Also, your second link (to the $65k auction) still has the right parenthesis in it so it doesn't work. Try this: https://bringatrailer.com/listing/2011-tesla-roadster-2/
I'm not sure they're going to be that collectable in much the same way that the original iPod or iPhone aren't "collectable".
The major issue, at the moment, is that the tech on which the vehicle has been built will slowly become obsolete. It's unlikely that they'll receive the same kind of support home hobbists provide for old electronics (at least without a right to repair law), so they're basically just planned obsolescence. Just e-waste with extra recyclables.
I'd honestly be surprised if Roadsters and early Model S's are serviceable after the next 10 years or next breakthrough in battery tech. Which ever comes first.
Yes it's possible that you can swap the batteries and hack the "ECU" like we do in modern cars, but the kind of people that collect cars typically aren't the same ones that swap flat plane Coyote engines into Miatas. Maybe 30 years from now after the obsolescence has taken it's toll, and someone wants to own the only powered Tesla Roadster in the US, but that's a long time to wait and I don't see the prices on EV-1's moving in the same fashion or receiving the same kind of love.
Too early for this crop of electrics, just typical used car prices. Now, if you had an 1888 Flocken Elektrowagen, now that would be collectible.
Relative rarity aside, the most collectible tend to be the first and the last of a given make or model, so the early Tesla Roadster would likely be a good candidate.
The0retical said:
I'm not sure they're going to be that collectable in much the same way that the original iPod or iPhone aren't "collectable".
The major issue, at the moment, is that the tech on which the vehicle has been built will slowly become obsolete. It's unlikely that they'll receive the same kind of support home hobbists provide for old electronics (at least without a right to repair law), so they're basically just planned obsolescence. Just e-waste with extra recyclables.
I'd honestly be surprised if Roadsters and early Model S's are serviceable in the after the next 10 years or next breakthrough in battery tech. Which ever comes first.
Yes it's possible that you can swap the batteries and hack the "ECU" like we do in modern cars, but the kind of people that collect cars typically aren't the same ones that swap flat plane Coyote engines into Miatas. Maybe 30 years from now after the obsolescence has taken it's toll, and someone wants to own the only powered Tesla Roadster in the US, but that's a long time to wait and I don't see the prices on EV-1's moving in the same fashion or receiving the same kind of love.
Strongly disagree, I expect there will be companies replacement packs for these cars when the manufacturer no longer supports them, just like third-party parts manufacturers make/reman. parts for old cars now.
ShawnG
PowerDork
5/14/19 9:23 a.m.
No matter how strange, awful or ugly it is. There will be someone out there who loves it.
ShawnG said:
No matter how strange, awful or ugly it is. There will be someone out there who loves it.
Yup. Someone will always want one, and by that simple request, it will be collectable.
In reply to GameboyRMH :
I expect so, the question is how long that manufacturing capacity will hold out after the rest of the industry moves on? Making batteries is messy and expensive, even at scale it's expensive.
What happens if LG moves away from pouch cells to sticks or Panasonic moves from sticks to moldable solid state and stops producing the cells? The aftermarket will need to reengineer an entire battery solution for a handful of cars, which while possible, is prohibitively expensive for most companies for the foreseeable future. The main sticking point is that aftermarket battery refurbishers currently rely on these OE manufacturers as the source for the cells that they're remanning. Aftermarket companies would need to either purchase the tooling and production capacity to continue to build the cells or build their own cell producing factories, and supply lines, to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars.
Coupled with the strong possibility that, given the state of right to repair here in the US, Tesla will at some-point DRM it's battery packs (not to mention already remotely locks the ECU of the cars on the secondary market), you're looking at a lot of work and expense. That puts a serious damper on the desire and ability of most people to collect something like this.
Someone will want it I'm sure, but they're not the same kind of durable good as an air cooled 911 or current GT-3. At least not at the moment.
STM317
UltraDork
5/14/19 9:57 a.m.
Never doubt society's ability to be stupid with money.
@The0retical: The cells in a Tesla are an industry standard cell type. There's no way you won't be able to get them in 10 years like you claimed. You can still get lantern batteries - when's the last time you bought something that used those? The Roadster uses 18650 cells which are made in the millions (or billions?) now and I guarantee you they'll be made in the millions in 2029.
The worry about DRM batteries certainly doesn't apply to any of the vehicles discussed here.
STM317 said:
Never doubt society's ability to be stupid with money.
I would certainly argue that this statement applies to most collector cars. There's no reason in the world for an aircooled 911 to be worth 6 figures.
